Sunday, October 14, 2012

JV's big year breakdown #3

Code 1:

No more birds left!

Code 2:

Purple Sandpiper

removed PAJA after the last update, just an "easy" PUSA left! 

Code 3: 

I personally broke code 3 into two parts... Part 1 was the "locks" 

Black-legged Kittiwake

Removing SAGU, LTJA and REPH since the last update... I still think he should get these birds as well... That would have him at 337 --- one short of the 338 record! 

Then there is (my personal opinion) of the "tough" code 3 birds:

Pacific Loon
Glossy Ibis
Western Kingbird
Cave Swallow

I predicted he would get 3 of 5 on the "tough code 3" category, and so far he only has 1 (BL Guillemot), with none of these birds being added since.... Although getting two more of the above birds is still very much possible

Code 4:

Back in the day, he needed about 5 code 4 birds, and I pulled out 5 "easy" ones as a prediction:

Townsend Solitaire -- yes
Swainson's Hawk
Northern Gannet
Little Blue Heron -- yes

Thankfully he's nailed 2 of these, which (sort of) made my point accurate that they're the "easier" code 4 birds.. Still some time for SWHA and NOGA!

I also pulled out some "backup" code 4 species:

White-faced Ibis
Eurasian Collared Dove
Northern Wheatear
Northern Fulmar
Rufous Hummingbird

None of these have made an appearance yet, I still think that 2 of these are possible (3 from above, 2 from below = record when I first started)...

The main excitement came in the form of a few "unexpected" rarities, namely the Thick-billed Kingbird... But stuff like YC Night-Heron really makes things happen.... I'm still feeling pretty good of my prediction that he'll hit 340! (First made on Jul 13)

Actually, here's the link to the first two prediction posts I've made:
Jul 13: 

Aug 19:


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