FALLOUT potential Sunday (vlog)

I'm vloggin' left, right and centre these days.... A video above to explain why there is potential for big numbers of birds on Sunday. It's not a sure thing at this point, but it looks promising... Watch for details!!!

I didn't even get to Monday - which looks AMAZING in it's own right (migrational surge into the Lake Erie area + overshoots & maybe even mega rares)...

It's the most wonderful time of the year.

It's GO TIME!!!

We've been spoiled with great early-season weather in the Great Lakes, and we're already saturated with early migrants, bugs & vagrants... So what happens next?


MORE BIRDS, MORE VAGRANTS, MORE MIGRATION!!!


I'm a bit tired to do a vlog, but I need to post.... Weather models have had a hard time nailing this forecast down, and it might still change a little (esp Sunday-Monday)... But here's a short-term look-ahead....



Wednesday (tomorrow):

This is 850mb winds with the temperature overlay... WARM SW WINDS over ALL the southern Great Lake... This is AWESOME migration weather, moderate vagrant weather, and moderate chances of super-exciting birding at traditional lakeshore stopover sites... Personally, I'm hoping for a light to moderate reverse migration at Pelee (with a recent, or even holdover vagrant taking advantage of the light SSE winds to fly off the tip & get photographed - by me...)


Thursday:

The front & low gets stalled to some degree - so there are still strong SW winds & warm temps happening... This isn't the best vagrant or migration setup IMO, but I can only assume things will be moving - and given that we're already saturated with good birds from previous events - anything can happen (e.g. that Long-billed Curlew curretly undetected in Indiana, may wander to Hillman Marsh...) 

Sunday: 

This has MEGA EXCITEMENT potential written all over it... I should really do a vlog post to explain this properly, but for now here's a sneak peak.... 850mb winds are warm & out of the south... surface winds would be cool & strong out of the NE or E... Migrants will fly to the very limit and then drop in spectacular numbers....

The problem - is where exactly will this edge (of warm & cold air - OR the precipitation edge) end up?? If it's south of Lake Erie, you may have a cold dull Sunday am.... If it lines up just right, there could be 5,000 Yellow-rump Warblers at the tip of Point Pelee... It's the knife edge - as the fallout potential increases, so does the potential for nothing... Keep an eye on this day!!!

More to come! Exciting times! 

A real vlog

So... instead of writing a blog post on the limits of air masses/rain & vagrant birds (with exciting weather systems) - I  decided to talk to my computer instead...

Visual ID of American vs. Fish Crow...

How does that make you feel? I'm posting a few crow photos from today with the hopes of generating some discussion as to everyone's comfort level in using visual characteristics in separating these species in a semi-vagrant setting (Ontario).

Set/bird #1:

Set/bird #2 (plus an OOF bird) -

What say you?! I'll write my (100% honest and not influenced by whatever anyone else says) opinions in a few days...

Right now, mega migration is unfolding!!

PS - if you want to know more on these species, check out the holy grail link here: 

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/crows/FishCrow.htm

UPDATE:

Radio-silence leads me to believe that no one is comfortable with visually ID'ing crows... Here's a few more pics from today (one day after the pics above) - if you want to try some more before commenting! 

(I think there are 3 birds in this series, but I may have included a fourth) 

And one more bird:

===================

Edit #3 - 

Here's my take.... 

The fieldmarks for birds in flight are generally not reliable... It may be that there are differences in size/shape in the flight feathers between adults & first year birds (anyone have pyle handy? mine is buried)....

The moe "swept back" the wings are, the harder it is to assess the appearance of P5 vs. P4, P6 & P9...

I can find "one off" pictures of both AMCR & FICR that appear to show exactly what that species SHOULD NOT show... (both primaries and bill structure) 

Therefore I think it'd take 10+ photos (with different postures) to properly assess any differences in primary ratios...

Here's my thoughts on the above birds:

First five photos: 

A key problem here is all my photos show the bird with the wings swept back, which seems to favour FICR appearance regardless of species... 

However, in each photo, P5 seems to have no interest in looking like a finger (or at all longer than P9) and the bill is very hooked, so I'm inclined to identify it as a Fish Crow (with the full disclaimer I'm not really worried if I'm wrong, and am happy to adjust going forwards as we get better information on these birds). 

Second set of five: 

This bird, and the previous (first set of five) were a flock of five crows that flew past... I managed to get a series of two only... This bird spreads out a bit more, and I'm inclined to say the same features apply regarding the primaries (P5 looks more like P4 than it does P6 - aka not a finger)... The wing spread is a little better in trying to say that P9 is roughly equal to P5, although you can see that each wing looks a bit different, highlighting how awful this is to try with photographs..

(the bill is hard to see)

One other interesting element is that the out of focus crow in the background of two of these images is clearly showing P10-6 in both shots (with the third and final below) with P5 MIA... 

So in summary, I had a flock of 5 crows - that all looked odd to me - so I took pics.... I now have ~30 photos of three birds, and none show any features either strongly against FICR, or strongly pro AMCR, so I'm inclined to say the flock was a group of FICR... So if you're like me, and you enjoy trying to identify every single bird you see regardless of circumstances - it's an interesting thought/conclusion... 

IF you like enjoying your bird observations and NOT making mistakes when identifying birds, then this process probably seems insane...

----------

The last 12 photos (of 5 different birds, I think) - were all taken the next day, as I tried to get some new reference material to test these ideas on... I suspect they're all American Crows.... The vast majority of photos seem to show a semi or strongly-pro AMCR feature on first glance... Some images showed features that seemed to align with Fish Crow, however once I tried another mark (e.g. P5 vs. P9) it was more in line with AMCR... Check out some markups of the origional bunch:

Long story short:

The marks aren't definitive - photos can be misleading - take 15-20 photos of a bird in flight, and then you'll have a chance of being more confident, but not totally confident, if you care. 

Oh, and context is huge as well (I had 5 birds together in a FICR-plausible time/place, when peak AMCR migration has passed, which gave me a really weird vibe - after watching for these things fairly steadily since 2011). 

VLOG?!

Rarity alert! One of the earliest major-exciting weather events I can remember... Is it toooo early? Probably not. Great birding awaits! I'm back to making videos:

I'm probably not going to post these things every time (ok, I'm not) so if you're keen on them - don't be afraid to subscribe to the youtube page...

Get out there!!!

RARITY ALERT - Apr 9-10

I dedicated my third video to this! 36-48 hours of spectacular migration & high vagrant potential approaches.

ebird gull media upload

eBird checklists with photos! If you haven't used the ebird media database yet, I encourage you to do so! It's 2 million photos (& growing), and is an unbelievable tool when researching an unusual bird you've observed/photographed...

I use it so much, that I must also do my part, and kicked it off by uploading one of my favourite subjects: GULLS!

Check it out here: https://ebird.org/media/catalog

The odd mundane gull pic appears every once in a while, but for the most part I think they have something to offer... Hopefully they updated the "search options" in the future for added refinement (eg, "third winter Herring Gull")... But it's still pretty awesome...

I've tried to only paste an "active" link once, but occasionally I highlighted the same one twice when two really cool/unusual birds were photographed at the same date/site... I have a bunch more Glaucous/Iceland/Lesser Black-backed style photos, but have unfortunately lost my gusto to continue uploading them... At least the *good* stuff is online (until someone from eBird invalidates them!)...  Now enjoy this blog filler! -


Sabine's Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S11675426
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34154495
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34154644 (same bird, next day)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S5308395 (a dult)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34154906
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34155051
http://ebird.org/ebirdview/checklist/S8857549
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S8800462
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S6940582
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34158655


Black-legged Kittiwake:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33744521
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34153994
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34154147
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S5308395
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S5321679


Bonaparte's Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33744876
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33744765
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S14195895 (dark morph)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34002703
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34002888
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S6979081
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34158839


Little Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33744765
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33745748
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34002703
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34002888
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S14195918
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S11675426
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S8046017


Franklin's Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34002703 (same as a LIGU link)


Laughing Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33985697
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34002944
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34003148
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S16093325
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S6403130 (really bad)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S14195918
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S14138728


Great Black-backed Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33744765
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747386
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33984583
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34140298
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34145725
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34146658
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34146872
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34169158
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34172829
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34184884
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35655917


Great Black-backed X Herring / Herring:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35656522


Great Black-backed X Herring Hybrid (Great Lakes Gull):

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747736
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S15541952
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33984583
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33985424
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34120856
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9807875
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10069432
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34147440
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34153172
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34153907
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34169431
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34169625
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747164
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34180718
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34183726
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S25786526
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S22413804


Great Black-backed X Glaucous Hybrid:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747328 (super excited to see this in ON)


Herring/Thayer's Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33744765
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34168712


Herring Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33744876
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33746963
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747229
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S8857549 (nutty bird)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33985424 (massive amount of white in the wingtips)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33990150 (massive white apical spots)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33991814
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24399660
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9832015
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34139689
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34139918
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34145725
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34145934
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34146872
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34147270
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34161547
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34162057
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34168712
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34171899
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34172068
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10037500
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34002099
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34179804
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34181550
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34181975
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S6872439
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S6824222
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34183475
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35655917
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35656522
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35656898
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35657229 (tailband alert)



VEGA (Herring) Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33748027


Herring X Lesser Black-backed Hybrid:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33990150 (2w)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S5426055 (the SAME BIRD a YEAR LATER)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121417
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34153375
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747386
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34183726
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24924528


Herring X Lesser Black-backed Hybrid / Herring Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9832015


Lesser Black-backed Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S6133802
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33744765
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747894
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S15384268
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33984583
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S5140299
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S14195918
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121417
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9807875
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9832015
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9857032
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10062498
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34139689
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S5426055
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34146658
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34153375
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S11675426
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34153793
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34153907
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34160172
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34160715
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34169179
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34179569
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34179804
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34179890
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747164
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34180718
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34181550
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S6870751
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35657158
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35657903
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35679366


Lesser Black-backed / Yellow-legged Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34140298
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34145934 (duh same bird)


Herring / Herring X California Gull Hybrid:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33746963
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747164


Herring X California Gull Hybrid:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24924528


California Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24399660
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33990150 (same bird)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24399652 (new bird)
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33999991
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S19439806
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34000177
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34000328
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S23436424


Black-tailed Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S5376434


Ring-billed Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33744765
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33984583
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24399660
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34139689
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34139918
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34145934
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34147270
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S14091329
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34181975
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S7410208


Ring-billed / Ring-billed X Laughing (?):

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35656189


Iceland (Kumlien's) Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33746963
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33991317
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24399660
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34120856
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121417
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121645
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34137811
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9807875
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9832015
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9857032
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10062498
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34139918
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34145624
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34145725
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34001482
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34146098
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34160715
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747328
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34160990
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34169158
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34171899
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10037500
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747164
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34180718
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34168712
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34181975
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35655917
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34002888
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35679366



Iceland/Thayer's:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747328
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33991814
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24399660
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34120856
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121119
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34137811
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9807875
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9832015
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9857032
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10062498
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121645
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35655917


Thayer's X Iceland Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34160172
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121645 (same bird as above, dif date)


Thayer's Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747328
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747736
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33747894
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33985775
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33991814
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24399660
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121119
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121417
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34137463
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34137811
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9807875
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9832015
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9857032
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9898082
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10062498
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34001482
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34160715
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34168914
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34169158
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34169493
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34171899
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34172068
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10037500
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34179804
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34180718
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S19439806


Nelson's Inuk Gull (Glaucous X Herring):

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33753299
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33991814
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24399660
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34001482
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34001610
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34002099
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33746963
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34120856
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121119
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121417
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34121645
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10069432
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34171899
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S15733950


Glaucous Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S33991317 - barrovianus candidate
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S24399660
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S14195918
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S9857032
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S10062498
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34140298
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34145725
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34001482
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34146098
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34146872
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34147270
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S34181550
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S35655917


Glaucous-winged Gull:

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist/S5140299

Birding Weather Videos?!

Is this a good idea or a bad idea? I'm not sure. Just wanted to try it out... Perhaps more interesting weather will = more interesting videos...

Whatcha think? Any suggestions?