Part of a post that I did on Hamilton birds this morning:
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The approach of Hurricane Sandy (a hybrid storm, also going by the name Frankenstorm, due to its expected impacts around Halloween) is now of great interest to birders in Ontario. The exact track the storm, which is very difficult to predict at this time, will likely determine the birds that could be displaced by the system. To start, winds should increase from the north to northeast as the system approaches. Birders in Ohio this morning reported record numbers of grounded waterfowl such as Scoters, Harlequin Ducks, Brant and even a probable Common Eider. By Monday evening, winds in Hamilton could be approaching 100kmh from the NE - which should either make the birding very exciting or extremely difficult....
I don't like to predict much more than that for now, but I will be updating my blog on the situation when possible over the next few days... Care for extensive rain, flash flooding, fallen trees and power outages should also be taken into account...
Happy birding!
Brandon
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Current take on Sandy ----
The closer this thing gets to Ontario (hopefully passing over top of us) the better........... Although the models don't currently seem 100% thrilled with this idea...............
The main thing --- we NEED winds from the coast to reach Ontario... It it says south and east of us, we will get winds from Quebec and James Bay...... Which can be great (don't get me wrong)... As they will ground migrants (potentially in huge numbers) for our enjoyment... Birders in Ohio are already getting a taste of this today...
Read these to get yourself excited:
It will be very interesting to see what observers in Point Edward (Sarnia) see today........
BEYOND THAT...
Some potential scenarios being played out by different models...
Global Forecast System:
Here are some wind FORECAST maps with some arrows (that I drew)
Stage 1 of rarities - big a$$ storm approaches
This is only showing wind, but rain and bad weather should ground "Arctic" migrants in our region (as seen today in Ohio)
Part 2 --- Landfall
More groundings of Arctic Migrants likely around the great lakes and elsewhere inland in the province... They could be very significant numbers as 60kmh N winds blow them off James Bay and into a mess they didn't anticipate down here....
Red arrow --- NE winds created by the storm could bring us "other goodies" through the St. Lawrence river... Maybe an alcid or two?? Gannets? Kittiwakes? Great Cormorant?
Red Arrow part 2 ---- We could also get vagrants thrown off course by weather like this... Seems like the PREFECT set up (to me) to bring Ontario a wild BARNACLE or PINK-FOOTED Goose....
Black Circles --- as the system makes landfall - incredible winds will be pushing vagrants onshore and ashore... as the system "rotates" - I feel like this "part" of the storm will spin inland --- potentially bringing vagrants closer to the Great Lakes than you might expect.... Although note, there are no direct winds FROM the tropical part of this system hitting Ontario (so no tropical birds by this time, even though we will have very nasty weather already)
Part 3 - moving inland.... rapidly weakening
Even IF the storm doesn't directly hit Ontario, it will hopefully still come close enough to give us DIRECT wind flow from the coast... Being hybrid in nature, there should still be some frontal boundaries... The Black line i drew is my take on where the WARM frontal boundary will have rotated to (in this predicted scenario)
Everything to the EAST of that line will have DIRECT wind flow from the coast... I would hope that this would give us some spectacular chances at some displaced birds form the storm... Some birds I would like - Royal Tern, Black Skimmer, FRIGATEBIRDS,,, maybe even a carribean swift???
Of course, we would hope that this would also help any wayward TROPICBIRD or other pelagic wander far enough to hit the "big water" of the great lakes...
Part 4 - dissipation and eventually turn back to the E or NE...
The GFS (on this one run, which happens 4 times a day) shows the remnant low (weak) passing right over lake Ontario, which I would hope could be the type of situation where it "cleans up" and makes sure something actually wanders in our direction from the ocean (that had been pushed inland earlier)...
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Sounds good right? WELL , that is just one model.....
The ECMWF (euro) plays out differently...
It makes landfall further south.. Goes more west instead of Nw... and fizzels out well to the south of us... All of that "pre-storm" stuff applies, but maybe not quite as much... And the odds of displaced coastal and gulf stream seabirds decreases substantial...
Euro after Landfall... the "wind field" never really hits the great lakes.......... Red is the tropical part... Black is the wind direction hitting lake Ontario (from the N)
So yeah... We are going to have to wait and see!!!
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Some things to keep in mind ---
------ This ISN'T a normal hurricane... It is a HYBRID system combining tropical and non-tropical .... It hasn't really had much of an eye (at all) since it was just north of Cuba....
I think many people expect that "hurricane birds" get caught in the eye - which is very true.... This one just doesn't have an "eye" (it has a centre, not an eye)... very different
I used to think it HAD to have an eye for it to happen, until this summer when the Great Shearwater showed up in MI from Hurricane Isaac - which also never had much of an eye, moved very slowly, and occured WAY to the south of the great lakes
------Wind speed --- a hurricane with this sort of pressure should have 230kmh + winds... This one is 150kmh... Why?? Agian, because it isn't a normal hurricane... It is being strengthened by two sepreate factors (ocean heat = hurricane, but this one also has cold air to help)... Instead of having 230+kmh winds over a 20 mile area, it instead has 120+ kmh winds over a 650kmh wide swath..... That is a HUGE area, with (I think) excellent/extreme potential to still displace birds...
------ Low pressure systems and big storms do crazy things.... For all we know, there will be a number of Franklin's Gulls and Yellow-billed Loons dropped around the great lakes...It wouldn't make ANY sense, but anything is possible...
------ CRAZY rare birds are more likely to get displaced by storms than anything (it's just that they're crazy rare... Why did the Lesser Frigatebird show up in Michigan after Hurricane Katrina? Maybe because it was already stupidly lost, and was much more willing to just "go with the wind"... Same may apply to this years KELP GULL at pelee and the KERMADIC Petrel from Hawk Mountain way back in the day...
------ This storm is occurring MUCH MUCH MUCH closer than any previous "hurricane" or "Hurricane type storm" in Ontario's past...
Ignore the title - tracks of Hurricane Connie, Fran and Isabel which all brought Black-capped Petrels to Ontario... Connie was close, but also "only" tropical storm strength when it properly made landfall... This is virtually half the distance from the coast to the Great Lakes for this storm (although the tracks may end up being much better for the above storms than Frankenstorm)
------ Finally, this storm is pretty much UNPRECEDENTED... Regardless of exactly what happens, it is going to be an excellent learning experience on how weather systems can (or don't) displace birds..!!!
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