Looking ahead at the weather and das birdies

Best bird I saw at the tip of Pelee on May 7th...... 

Clearly things have been slow for a few days. The birds that made it into southern Ontario have left and are reaching breeding territories.

Birds south of us have been stuck behind a large spinning "cut off" low pressure system (cut off from the jet stream)... When the heck is it going to leave!?

Instability from the system is creating "pop up" showers all over the place... Here's the radar from Weds afternoon... Most of that "junk" SW of  SW Ontario just pops up during the day...

The winds have been light, but I think that rain has held back the birds... I have serious hope that at least a batch of migrants is going to be able to migrate overnight tonight into the extreme SW part of ON thanks to a slight change in wind direction as this "cut off low" SLOWLY moves NE.... It's a tale of two maps.. Looking at the radar (above)  - I have very little hope for migrants... Looking at the below map (for early tomorrow am) - gives me hope:

Above: hopefully the precip limits on this map are true and we get some migrants into Pelee

Looking ahead:

If tonight fails, we have another "iffy" situation for Friday - a frontal boundary with little embedded low centres will move over the Pelee area over 24-36 hours.... Low pressure = rares, but I'm not 100% sure this is a great set-up... Once again we have a "flip of the coin" for us getting nothing - or (hopefully) SOMETHING..

A major thing to keep in mind is that birds are possessed in spring migration - and they're delayed... So even if the weather looks questionable, I believe there is still a good chance each day for grounded migrants and great birding (even if its lacking mega's)... Remember - it only takes 5000 birds at the tip of Pelee to be an "incredible day" - and that's really only like 0.00003% of the 150,000,000+ passerines that probably breed in Ontario and nearby... 

Anyways here's Friday - hope that low sticks very close, or slightly north of Pelee...

Beyond that: Saturday - looks kinda "meh" from a weather angle - but again - IT'S MAY - could be great - hard to predict...

Sunday - BRHH! Cold air sinks into southern Ontario... Low FIVE - High - NINE  ... Winds NW 30kmh?! Hopefully!?  If the wind sticks NW and doesn't go full west, it will be a great day of birding in my books (at Pelee)... I loves me some hawkwatching... Some birds I'd like to see from the VC parking lot:

Ferruginous Hawk 

White-tailed Kite

White-throated Swift

White-collared Swift

Violet-Green Swallow

Anhinga

Wood Stork

Some birds I'd settle for:

Swainson's Hawk

Mississippi Kite

American White Pelican

Black Vulture
Fish Crow

White-faced Ibis

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher

Darn-near Arctic Air pushing south to Texas on Sunday

Monday - could be like Sunday but nicer- light winds - who knows

Tuesday/Wednesday - beyond that - the May14/15th has potential to be the next "major" migration event of 2013... A bit too far to be positive, but it looks promising for a million bird "vagrant filled" awesome migration event with low pressure and strong SW winds...  Not the greatest storm ever or anything - but could you pick a better time of year?! I think not!

Fingers crossed for more epic birds - major reverse - fallouts etc for May 15th-ish-range!

Anyways - a bit of fun - but always remember - there is no substitute to being outside birding... That's my "real" plan! It has been sooo slow, there's nowhere to go but up!

I thought this Squirrell did a fantastic job of summing up my feelings after birding (sleep deprived) all day at Pelee on May 6th to few warblers... Convinced me to go home for a few days and re-charge!