anal glaucoma

The time is nigh.....

10 reasons you can't come into work for the next two weeks....

1. Anal Glaucoma - my personal favourite.. Can't see your butt going into work next week...

2 . Tropicbird Flu - 2 weeks worthy, uses the established fear of bird flu

3.  Having car issues... Issue was - you got in your car, and went birding instead

4. Skua Syndrome - probably sounds scarier to birders..

5. Dr. Master's has detailed conditions that, for your personal sanity, require paid time off

6. Typhoid fever - just sounds bad

7.  multiple stercorarius

8. Say that Frankenstorm is proof that Myans were right and the world will end in 2012 and you want to spend more time (10 days) with your family...

9. Your ptwitchitary gland is acting up

10. You'd rather get fired than work next week....

Western Lake Ontario Marine Forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=11&siteID=08207

Current forecast is for 95kmh NE winds this Monday at Van Wagners..................................................................................

Presumably gusts would be in the 120kmh range..............

Let's see how it changes, but gawd damn............ 

Frakenstorm! Wat R U doing!? Come bak!!!

Throughout the day, the "models"  (no, not those models) trended towards a more southerly landfall for Frankenstorm...

Which led to it "stalling" well south of the great lakes and then slowly moving back out over sea...

NOT exactly what I want to happpen!



Although the last model runs of the day pushed it back northwards and closer to ON....


Current spaghetti :

Must come further north!!! 

Sandy herself is currently one UGLY duckling (as far as tropical systems go)... Getting shredded by strong upper level winds, you can see the centre of the storm is totally lacking rain/thunderstorms here:

Not even any storms! never mind an eye...........

Surrounded by dry air......

Future cast from HPC 

Starts to bomb out offshore

Reaches max insanity as it makes landfall 

Tries to come towards lake erie 

but doesn't quite make it, and dies down by this point....... 

Keep those fingers crossed!!!

Cave Swallow morning went well

Reporting (generally) for Kevin McLaughlin, Karl Dix, "Barb Wire" Charlton and Brett Fried:

145 birds!!! And don't get me wrong, most were "swallow sp" - but for all intensive purposes, they were also all CASW.......


Best waterbird was a few "Comic Terns" spotted by Brett

Also had a LOT of Common Loons, 15-ish RTLO (guess) , lots of ducks, 1 Dunlin, a male Northern Harrier out over the lake (coming ashore)...


Yeah! Pretty good day....... I took some terrible photos that I haven't edited yet, maybe later today?? Or not??


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Major news in the blogosphere !!!!

Bruce Mactavish has a blog...


http://brucemactavish1.blogspot.ca/


One quick look at the top photo should tell you all you need to know!!! Watch that space!!!


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Will probably do a few blog posts a day if Sandy continues to trek towards us (or Frankenstorm, I should say, since it will no longer be sandy by then) ....

The huge question (I think) still, is will it REACH Ontario? Or stall south then go out to sea? The birding will be EPIC if it passes over top of us (the centre)

From last night:

Rather large circulation involved with this 'cane... 

Mother of god

I wasn't dreaming yesterday...... This thing may even hit Lake Erie.... We need it to hit us! (for birds, that is)

CASW tomorrow (Again)

Just posted this on the Hamilton list, and decided to copy/blog it too (easy) ....


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Apologies for a non sighting, but I thought this may be of interest to Hamilton birders... Cave Swallows are currently being seen throughout the great lakes (probably "arriving" several days ago on excellent conditions), but are now "on the doorstep". IF the winds are southerly (without the fog of today), history has shown that this would be an excellent chance to see this species along the south shore of the lake.


My goal for tomorrow morning is to watch from the NE corner of Fifty Point C.A. in Grimsby, starting fairly early (good for waterbirds) and will have fingers crossed for some CASW before the rains hit... After this, winds will switch to the north or NW, which would diminish hopes of a flight here... If you're interested in giving it a try, the more eyes the better here! (Just remember, this is not a sure thing!) I have had success in the past at other vantage points along the lake like Fruitland Rd, Green Rd. and Sayer's Park.




As a side note, it will be very interesting to see if a future weather system being dubbed "Frankenstorm" will have any effect on Ontario around (or after) Halloween, but we're too far away to know right now.




Brandon

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Also: 

Congrats to Tim Baerwald et al who picked up the first 50dor CASW today! And to Jen Brumfield who nailed an epic bird today with a Say's Phoebe... 

Frankenstorm update #3 for today

Just pulled some stuff off the world wide webs....... This part was posted by a user on a weather blog:

--
12z runs in good agreement for Superstorm Sandy

12z Euro...932mbs
12z GFS...941mbs
12z GFDL...925mbs
12z CMC...939mbs
12z UKMET...945mbs

That is a 5 model consensus on a storm going under 945mbs in October off the East coast, in less than 5 days. The only global model outlier was the HWRF which kept it in the 950s because it didn't hook the storm back in to the east coast. Regardless, the modeled event has probably never happened before for this time of year. A sub 945mb storm off the East Coast in October is incredibly rare and likely the lowest pressure ever for an extratropical/subtropical storm in this region of the world in October. As Levi put it, this would redefine the 'Perfect Storm'.


It is 4 days out though, so there's room for model error.

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We are almost in the "cone" for the NOAA National Hurricane Center maps:

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Tropical Tidbit for the storm... These weather videos are very much worth the watch - possibly my favourite online weather stuff... His website: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

His cone (that I'm linking to... hope its ok!) 

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Weather Underground:

GFS runs at low resolution:

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There is no guarantee that this thing will come close enough to Ontario... But sure would be exciting (from a weather and birding stand point)....... 

HPC maps:

Oct 29

Oct 30 

Oct 31

More on the storm + Cave Swallows tomorrow in Hamilton

Cave Swallows should be very get-able in Hamilton tomorrow... I'm going to head to Fifty Point C.A. in Grimsby to hopefully pick some up... (might as well watch some CASW and hope for something more epic, right?)

The weather pattern really isn't allll that great for CASW, but the important part is that they're already "on the door step" from a storm system 7-10 days ago, that brought them very close to us rather early in the season...

We'll see what happens!

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More importantly, Hurricane Sandy:

Hurricane Sandy - making the best of it in Jamaica 

Most of the global models are happy with the idea of Sandy combining with a cold front, to turn into a monster-sized crazy steroid storm... (Since it may hit around Halloween somewhere in the USA - I'm hearing the name - Frakenstorm - being passed around) -- since it would no longer be "sandy" when it goes post-tropical.......


Different from the blog post already uploaded today (written yesterday) - Sandy underwent some RI (rapid intensification) over night and was a Cat 2 (borderline category 3) Hurricane as it hit Cuba - much stronger than anticipated...

Funny. 

Recent look 

Models 

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Updating view of Sandy:

Now the Ontario question is - will it reach Ontario? 

Otherwise we are just going to look at a LOT of N or NW winds and cold temperatures that would end a lot of our fall fun with passerines and instead bring us winter ducks and gulls.....

Ok we really need to start paying attention to this storm situation......

Hurricane Sandy currently churning away, hitting Jamacia yesterday....

Here's what we're looking at.... The hurricane may merge with a front and "bomb out" into an epic storm over the NE... 

Here's one of the most extreme model runs over the past two days..... Would very easily be the most powerful storm to ever hit our area...... 

Current run of models for Hurricane Sandy (wouldn't be a Hurricane .. or fully tropical ... when it hit us) 

Sat view of Sandy on the 23rd... 

current view I think... may be dark, roughly 10-12 hours a day maybe? 

Day 28

Van Wagner's Beach - couldn't get out early like I had planned... When I wrote the post, I sort of forgot that I have this funny thing called "life" to attend to as well as bird...


Managed 3 hours this afternoon (12-3).....

2-3 Parasitic Jaegers
1 Pomarine Jaeger  (close with a sub adult PAJA)
8-ish Bonaparte's Gulls
2 Red-throated Loons
all 3 Scoters (lots)
3+ Lesser Black-backed Gulls

+ 1 Snow Bunting (hanging around), and A LOT of freaking sparrows.. It was a Sparrow (Junco) fall out including my first 10-15 American Tree Sparrows for the fall...  Maybe when the weather clears, I'll spend some time down there looking for the mega passerine



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Cave Swallow season starts early? A bunch reported in NY the other day on Lake Ontario... If they're "already here" - the mediocre S winds on Thursday and Friday could bring some into Ontario... I'll probably try Fifty Point.......



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Wednesday morning - if I can, I'll get out early and try for more VWB birds on the E winds... Not as strong as today, but hopefully the weather is a bit nicer for the observers (got soaked today, left early.. I don't enjoy being wet and birding)

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Mega storm in our future?

A few days ago I joked about a "super massive insane-o-storm" in the long range forecasts, but wouldn't you know it, multiple models are now tossing around the idea of an epic beast of a system coming our way in late Oct or early November...

It wouldn't be 100% tropical in nature, but would be the spawn of Tropical Storm Sandy currently south of Jamaica.. Just like Hurricane Hazel wasn't 100% tropical when it "bombed out" over Ontario...  (arctic cold front hitting a tropical system = lots of energy)

Some future cast maps

If it came to pass, it would be one of the most powerful storms ever to hit our area in the fall... Although not everyone agrees on it, so it'll be fun to watch over the next 2-4 days to see how things change (and what actually happens) 

EAST!

East winds today!? This is another auto post, so hopefully the forecast holds and I'm currently at Van Wagner's Beach watching Kittiwakes and other goodies...

Maybe even dozens and dozens of adult Gannets?!!? (Or maybe just the one adult Gannet that has potentially been on the lake for weeks?)... I don't know about you, but it has been 4-5 years since I've seen a Gannet in Ontario.............

My usual weather sources for east winds.. Check them and come to the lake!


The Grimsby Buoy:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/marine/weatherConditions-currentConditions_e.html?mapID=11&siteID=08207&stationID=45139

The Lift Bridge:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/marine/weatherConditions-currentConditions_e.html?mapID=11&siteID=08207&stationID=WWB

Marine Forecast:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=11&siteID=08207&stationID=WWB


LOOFS:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/loofs/fore_wind.shtml


I like LOOFS quite a bit for these short-term forecasts... Currently calling for 30-ish kmh E winds... Strong enough for me, considering how much we've been lacking good E winds in 2012.....



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Maybe this is what we'll be looking for?! --- Recently from Derby Hill -


Adult Pomarine?! Long-tailed?! Franklin's Gull!?

http://www.nemesisbird.com/2012/10/jaegers/


Different day, different photos - Long-tailed?! Franklins!? Record shot of the adult Gannet!?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/14186021@N04/with/8110529316/#photo_8110529316


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LTJA from Oct 23, 2004 at VWB... 

I dislike running culture

Birding plans for yesterday - go to Fort Erie, check some of Lake Erie and then drive the river north...


What happened: Drive to Fort Erie, and discover they have the entire freaking lakeshore shut down for a gawd dang marathon.....

Seriously, they ran from Buffalo, blocked the lake, then turned around and ran the entire fashking road to Niagara Falls (shut down to cars the entire way)... Nice to know AFTER you make the drive down there..... Can't these people run somewhere that has a trail? Or run beside the road? If you can't manage to avoid being run over by a car, maybe you shouldn't do a Marathon in the first place??

And don't get me wrong, athletes who are capable of competing at a high level and make a serious attempt at running are great. They probably finished fairly quickly, but then there are a huge host of people who seem to think that it would be "fun to give a MARATHON a try"... They were walking within the first 4-5 miles, flapping their arms over their heads to get rid of cramps, drinking from one of 5 water bottles they have strapped around their waist, and a matching full-body running suit... Maybe if you spent less time worrying about your running fashion statement, and more time RUNNING - you wouldn't get cramps in the first 6 minutes.......


But I digress.....

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Can you tell I didn't find anything rare?


Fort Erie - was able to park and walk down to the river mouth... Lots of birds in Buffalo, not much in ON - highlight was a Juv Little Gull... Lots of Surf Scoters

Adam Beck - not much beyond RB and Herring Gulls... Thought about looking for the Black Vultures, but I didn't bother...

Whirlpool - nothing

Above the falls - 7 Lesser Black-backed Gulls (2 juv, 5 ad), 1 Horned Grebe (at the control gates, floating rapidly downstream and flying back south... did this 15+ times while I was there)... Lots of ducks (AMWI, GADW, HOME etc)

Also had a late Green Heron here

die, devil boat

Below the falls - NADA, although there was a lot of birds to look at... Mainly RB Gulls... Also a Scaup in the gorge... Would probably be more cool waterbirds here if the shut down the Maid of the Mist..


That's all she wrote.....


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Obligatory bird photos, just to prove I was out:

Tame flock of PISI near the falls itself... 

50dor - day 26

Teamed up with the rarity finding machine known only as Kentucky  yesterday...... Some spots:


Erb St. Landfill in Waterloo - did a 5 minute look - nothing (not even a hybrid)

Feeble attempt at a Waterspout at Port Burwell 

Port Burwell - gulls and geese on the beach, not much else... Lots of Waxwings.. LOTS of waxwings...

PB Provincial Park - beach was dead... Some Warblers -- Cape May, Blackpoll, Orange-crowned...

LOTS of passerines to look at again, maybe not as many as recent weeks, but still good. Highlights were a Catbird and a Philly Vireo! -- we wondered how late it was getting for PHVI.... The bird was very bright.. I managed a terrible record photo:

Long Point - did a quick "drive around" - most unexpected were these Caspian Terns on Hastings Drive... Another bird where I feel like it's getting fairly late, but we somehow managed to see multiple birds:

Port Rowan SL had my first STILT SANDPIPERS of the year! Yearbird! woo! (As you may have noticed, I didn't really look at shorebirds this summer...) Some teal that I didn't look at carefully as well....

Lots of gulls on the Inner Bay at LP - along with thousands of American Wigeon and American Coots... Did a quick scan, but no Euros... Want a bigger rarity anyways....

On the drive home we had an unusual "goose" catch out attention, until we noticed it was a domestic mallard thing (Ken called it something proper). 

There's always tomorrow for your rarity dreams to come true... 

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Epic cosmic mega rare from Massachusetts - Gray-tailed Tattler: 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pbtrimble/8103987596/in/pool-ebird

Awesome rare from VA:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/10349159@N08/8105293033/in/pool-ebird

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A bit of "long-range" weather fun - an extremely powerful storm making landfall in the USA on  Oct 29th ish, then travelling into eastern Lake Ontario where it would no doubt drop dozens of rarities........ 

Equivalent pressure to a Category 3 Hurricane here...... 

This is just bordering on our "long range" abilities methinks, and perhaps the proper term would be "fantasy land forecast" or "wish-casting" - but hey, it sure looks like it would be FANTASTIC rarity weather (eg,/ some of the best ever.. that is an unbelievably strong storm) 

50dor: day 25

Day 25 has come and gone..... Here's what I did (in case you're wondering, I work most of these days, which is why I have odd locations and visits to these places - before and after work)



Binbrook Conservation Area - nothing... Water levels higher than I thought...

Haldibrook Rd - jump to the chase - Cattle Egret 500m away from where I grew up! Rarer than anything I personally found nearby that house when I lived there for 10-ish years... (Although my Neighbours once found a CAEG, and my dad found a Hud-wit in the backyard!)

a pic:

I have a habit of finding the same rarities over and over.. My 5th "self found" in 10 years, and 10th individual seen  (without intentionally twitching) ... Now it's time for a mega!

Grand River at York - 1 Tree and 1 Northern Rough-winged Swallow

Grand River - River Rd... 1 Lesser, 1 Greater Yellowlegs, 3 Killdeer, 1 Wilson's Snipe and 1 Great Egret to complete the "2 egret sp day" 

Grand River Mouth - nothing....

Lake Erie shore - did a very short bit... Had 50 Horned Grebes at one location.. Lots of Canada Geese...

Mosaic Ponds - not much... Waterfowl were around, but low numbers... Not much really..

I thought about doing Rock Point, but I decided to head towards home to get ready for the evenings festivities... Stopped at Van Wagner's when I noticed there was a NE wind blowing... But when I got close, the fog was thick as pea soup...

Went to the Burlington Canal in hopes of getting out in the fog to see if any Phalaropes etc had come close to the walls with limited visibility... The answer? No good birds!

25 days left for someone to find a mega... Josh Vand gets 5+ straight days of NW winds when they arrive at Netitishi tomorrow (today) ... I've only managed 1.5 to 2 -ish days in my 23 days I've spent up there in Oct/Nov.................

Pea soup I tell ya!

You know that it would be untrue....

If I was to say to you..

So yeah... Gotta be something rare out there, right?

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50dor: yesterday was the "maybe I can not go rarity hunting, but find a rarity by luck" trial (Mom's birthday hike!) Lots of fun, no rares..

Some pics:

Ma with WBNU!

Paying their respects

Red!

I spotted a huge wasp right in front of this fella... I said (out loud) - "There's a huge Wasp! Eat it!" - and 0.5 seconds later the squirrel gave a huge open palm "smack" to the wasp.. It squirmed for a second, then he picked it up and ate the whole thing! Who knew squirrels know English??

Dad using his magical powers to levitate a WBNU

Mom with WBNU! One of the stars of the "hand feeding" birds.