Sunday, November 27, 2016

A little more rarity weather

Can hardly complain with the weather this fall... Great conditions & great birds... Another interesting low pressure system is poised to pass near/through the Great Lakes early this week... Once again the winds may be lining up a little better for Wisconsin/Michigan & area than Ontario/New York - but everyone should get in on the fun...

I'd say this is more of a "classic" fall low - with lost of moisture - although not exactly "classic" with only moderate winds... Here's a rapid breakdown:

Early Monday: Monster 979mb low to the west... Precip-free southerly winds moving into Michigan & Ontario... This is near "peak" for this event, but as of writing (Sunday) they've already started...

Early Tuesday: low stays at max intensity for ~24 hours then starts to weaken/become "cutoff" - however a lot of energy has been pulled into the S. Great Lakes by this point - including moisture...

Early Wednesday: Primary low is weakening fast, new low pressure forming near James Bay and also near the east coast... Odd/fun wind structure pulling into the southern Great Lakes where post-frontal (cutoff low) SW winds (and potentially some warmth) are reaching the region, despite the fact this would normally be the "cold" side of the storm

Early Thursday: The east coast low has left, and the "primary/weakening" low phases with the "James Bay" low, giving us another shot of fun wind/weather (and by this point, genuinely colder air)... The wind doesn't "come from" anywhere all that interesting, but should help get whatever birds are around/left (gulls, ducks?) moving. 

Early Friday - the "phased low" hangs around and weakens, but may be in a good position to bring even more N winds off of James Bay (which eastern ON birders thoroughly enjoyed this week)... Nothing too special, but a fun setup for the fall - anytime. 

Keep your eyes peeled, and find some late-season birds to enjoy!

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