Monday, September 28, 2015


The third best rarity period of the calendar year began a few days ago... From now through early November, interesting weather means interesting birds... Verrry interesting....

Look at those winds! Why is there for days of strong NE winds in the forecast? 

Looks like a blocking pattern out over the ocean.... Then a frontal boundary will stall just offshore the atlantic - and the nature of the overall pattern will lock us into some NE winds!

Then we have TD11 hanging around the Bahamas. No matter what happens with this cyclone, we will have NE winds... BUT - due to the blocking pattern, there is a chance that any prospective cyclone may be pushed inland and towards the Great Lakes. 

The storm has high uncertainty at this point in terms of where it's going. Then there is uncertainty if it survives at all. It will be a few days before I get excited about this one, which is good because I think the weather will still be exciting without it!

The front will pass through during the day tomorrow (Tuesday)... This visual rendition of the GFS model for Wednesday morning is showing a strong NE wind pushing to Hamilton at that time.

Jump ahead 24 hours to Thursday (8am) and we have winds pushing down the St. Lawrence! The frontal boundary is clearly evident offshore and TD11 just barely shows at the very bottom of the frame. 

24 hours after THAT, dang... This is Friday morning, and open to uncertainty, but I'm seeing visions of Kittiwakes dancing in my head. The winds are pulsing right down the St. Lawrence. I don't want to get carried away, cause it's a few days away still and forecasts (and model runs such as this) are subject to great change... But we'll be rollin in Kitti's if this happens! 

I really don't want to get carried away, but a Gannet, Razorbill or Manx Shear would go a long way in really spicing up this condo big year... 

Above is an archived surface map from Oct 20th, 2011 - a storm that brought a Gannet and Razorbill to Ottawa... This one has serious punch, unlike the prolonged winds we may be experiencing later this week... What will the differences be? Will we see anything really exciting? Or will it be a total dud? Only way to know is to be out looking!

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