The devil you know

Unfortunately it doesn't look like the blog will be switching into Hurricane mode... We still don't know for sure, but the current spaghetti is not looking favourable.

Not only is there dissapointment from Great Lakes birders from this type of news; the people currently in the Bahamas are wishing Joaquin was never born... The Hurricane is now Category 4 and is wreaking ungodly havoc on those poor folk. Hoping it is not as bad as it looks from the satellite images....

SO - what about the devil we know? 

35 knot NE winds in early October? You gotta be kitten me! A few days ago I was yammering about this being Kittiwake weather - AND IT IS.... But it's probably not as good as it looked a few days ago. I guess we can't catch a break!

The inverted front wants to become more of a cutoff low - sending our cane to sea and reducing the distance and intensity of our "feeding winds". This is my old standby of rare bird finding - you need the winds to be COMING from somewhere exciting. 100kph winds from Kingston to Hamilton brings Kingston birds (zzz)... We want winds from Newfoundland !!!

For the next 24-48 hours, winds ARE coming down the St. Lawrence, and will hopefully bring the Kitti's (and something bonafide mega-ish)... They just aren't as strong (at the source) as they were looking a few days ago... 

Then by Sunday; we're still lookin at some ballin NE winds on the Great Lakes - but our source has been crushed by high pressure - even pushing birds away!

On top of that, I have this uneasy feeling about all of this sunshine in the forecast. I know it isn't much; but I like my rarities with low (rainy) pressure.... Looking back, I think some of my most disappointing days of lakewatching have occurred during a strong wind + sunshine...

Thankfully it only takes one bird; and a stormy lake is pretty exciting on it's own. Should be very good for rapid passerine and raptor migration too! I have had great luck at Pelee on NE winds in the fall, so hopefully everyone has a blast at the OFO conference this weekend. I'll be jealous if a huge Turkey Vulture migration shakes down.