Thursday, April 7, 2016

Longer range weather guessing

Despite the weather, it's the time of year to start getting all anxious and jittery about what may be just around the corner... Neotropic Migrants have hit the USA, and could appear on your borders anytime with the right weather conditions...

SO - a rapid post on some of my favourite things to look at, and what is coming...

First - CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks:

The 6-10 day outlook is cool, but the 8-14 day outlook is showing a 30-60% chance of "above normal" temperatures for our area....

Model Runs: My two favourite sites for model data:

Model runs are NOT forecasts. Use several different runs from different models (esp GFS and ECMWF) to get a rough idea on what might happen... Know what they're saying?

Above average temps in the Apr 16-18 timeframe... Brought about through high pressure... 


Also calling for warmer than normal temps, but a different setup... Compare the 850mb winds above with the run from the GFS for roughly the same time:

It's totally different!

So what's the moral of this birdy/weather story?

It's much too far away to get excited about weather. (240hr forecasts are the extreme limit at the best of times) - BUT we can say that it looks "interesting" in this timeframe... Otherwise, I'm not expecting any big fireworks for at least 7 days..

And at that, it is likely (at best) to be a 1-3 day spurt of warm weather, before we await the next... So 10-14 days of limited action may be in store...

Would be nice to see more surges of great weather (March was pretty darn good) - but I'm also quite happy to "save it up" for May

Soon.... Soon...... 

A(nother) big update (for me) will happen Apr 21st!


  1. Those SCTA's are pretty numerous in central Panama right now ;)

    1. ya ya ya.... But you're missing out on all of our... snow?