Saturday, April 16, 2016

The birds approacheth (first ALERT of the year)




Sometimes I feel silly for making these posts... Tomorrow and Monday are poised to be the "best" days of this beauty sun and high pressure we've been experiencing (especially because Monday will finally burst the bubble) - but why not talk about NEXT Sunday and Monday instead?

Models are kicking around the idea of a significal low pressure / strong S or SW flow event .... Likely starting Sunday morning (give or take a day) and ending Mon-Tue (give or take a day)..

Each model run is different, but 75% look very promising for an early season blast of birds...



Sunday via one model run of the GFS (precip, pressure etc) 



Monday via one model run of the GFS (850mb winds and vorticity) 



Tuesday via one model run of the GFS (precip, pressure etc)


Each of these is bringing the much-desired "long-distance" S to SW winds (fairly strong too) with varying amounts of precipitation....

In most runs, it holds well north of Lake Erie (and area), so while it reduces the odds of a huge grounding of birds --- it also decreases the odds of a day being a complete and total bust...



Sunday via one model run of the ECMWF (850mb winds, vorticity) 



Tuesday via one model run of the ECMWF (bit different than the others, eg. not the current norm - but looking gooood).. (850mb winds, vorticity).



So there you have it. If I were a betting man, i'd say this is 7 days notice to some darn good days birding... AKA seven days to plan your workload and get that doctors note to take a sick day or two...


(so close you can TASTE it) 



Oh - and the next day or two will be beauty weather / great days to be outside - so don't forget to get out and enjoy it!

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