We've been spoiled with great early-season weather in the Great Lakes, and we're already saturated with early migrants, bugs & vagrants... So what happens next?
MORE BIRDS, MORE VAGRANTS, MORE MIGRATION!!!
I'm a bit tired to do a vlog, but I need to post.... Weather models have had a hard time nailing this forecast down, and it might still change a little (esp Sunday-Monday)... But here's a short-term look-ahead....
This is 850mb winds with the temperature overlay... WARM SW WINDS over ALL the southern Great Lake... This is AWESOME migration weather, moderate vagrant weather, and moderate chances of super-exciting birding at traditional lakeshore stopover sites... Personally, I'm hoping for a light to moderate reverse migration at Pelee (with a recent, or even holdover vagrant taking advantage of the light SSE winds to fly off the tip & get photographed - by me...)
The front & low gets stalled to some degree - so there are still strong SW winds & warm temps happening... This isn't the best vagrant or migration setup IMO, but I can only assume things will be moving - and given that we're already saturated with good birds from previous events - anything can happen (e.g. that Long-billed Curlew curretly undetected in Indiana, may wander to Hillman Marsh...)
This has MEGA EXCITEMENT potential written all over it... I should really do a vlog post to explain this properly, but for now here's a sneak peak.... 850mb winds are warm & out of the south... surface winds would be cool & strong out of the NE or E... Migrants will fly to the very limit and then drop in spectacular numbers....
The problem - is where exactly will this edge (of warm & cold air - OR the precipitation edge) end up?? If it's south of Lake Erie, you may have a cold dull Sunday am.... If it lines up just right, there could be 5,000 Yellow-rump Warblers at the tip of Point Pelee... It's the knife edge - as the fallout potential increases, so does the potential for nothing... Keep an eye on this day!!!
More to come! Exciting times!