Code Red Rarity Alert - Monday

Monday continues to look like a rarity day we all dream of... Things may still change, but let's hope they don't!

With that said, solid rarity weather is already upon us - will continue into Saturday - and yeah - there is just good stuff out there to be found. Bird is the word!

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(one of those goodies from today)...

I actually forgot my card reader at home, so it'll probably be Sunday before flight photos of the Eurasian Tree Sparrow come to light! 

RARITY ALERT - Friday, Saturday, Sunday, MONDAY

I like to think I did a decent (short notice) job on saying Wednesday at Pelee was going to be pretty good - so I decided to make another prediction! Sooner or later (sooner) - I'll be wrong.

Anyhoot.

Check this out:

5am tomorrow (Friday) morning. Warm winds aloft, TRYING (close, but not quite) - yet TRYING to get warm Texas air blowing steadily right up and over Pelee... 

And not much rain in the way (same time frame)... 

I PREDICT! - Reverse migration at Pelee tip tomorrow morning, with other goodies flying around. Solid chance for some rare birds thanks to the wind, but probably nothing in massive numbers? 

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Saturday! 

More of the same - souterly winds from the southern USA trying to reach Pelee... Not the best, but they're trying. Also note - that odd subtropical creature growing off South Carolina. That could make something cool happen!? Right?! 

I predict!!! - Same as Saturday, but stronger surface level winds might mess with the reverse migration (as would rain/cloud etc).

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Sunday!!!

Wind, Rain! Not Quite! But Pretty Good! Yeah! Subtropical Anna! 

I predict!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - More of the same. Chance for rain to drop bigger numbers, chance of rain screwing stuff up (incl reverse migrations etc)... May be the worst of the four days, (or maybe the best, it's kinda hard to know)

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MONDAY!!!!!!!

MEGA SOUTH WINDS!!!!! Check out those 850mb mofos. This is a day to get a CMF... Rain could screw it all up, but it's looking pretty good... Not White-crested Elania good, but maybe something like:

Cassin's Sparrow?
Black-headed Grosbeak?
Bullock's Oriole?

Bah - who knows! It looks pretty good though.

Bird is the word!

Is this it? A fallout on radar? Or just a large drop of migrants? or?

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sfc

850mb

850mb w/ temp

sfc temp 

weather network rain forecast 

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Water vapour 

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Fallout potential tomorrow at Point Pelee / Rondeau / Long Point

I've never knowingly observed/watched a serious "fallout" occur in weather forecasts and real-time radar images, but this is kinda what I would expect. Not the "best" setup I could dream up, but it has serious potential for incredible birding...

Above: the recent model run (NAM - North American Mesoscale) at high resoloution (4km) for tonight. The time equates to 11pm...

Note there is a heavy band of precip over the lake, but it's thin and probably involves a fair bit of Thunder and Lightning.

Above: same model, same run - showing 850mb winds and temps. There is warm air aloft, blowing from the SOUTH (it will be a cool east or NE at ground level)... This could push the birds right into the rain, where they are forced to make an emergency landing at your favourite vagrant spot...

WITH THAT SAID - forecasting the exact time/position of rain and wind is very hard, even at this late hour. If a single band appears south of Lake Erie, it could stop all movement and have the exact same birds present as today (if not less)... 

In order to get a truly spectacular day, the forecasting is on a knife edge between incredible and awful. Only way to know for sure is to be out there! 

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Yest. quiz answers:

Wood Duck

Great Blue Heron

Eastern Bluebird

Spotted Sandpipers

Lesser Yellowlegs 

Blue Jays

Pine Siskin 

Eastern Kingbird

Lesser Yellowlegs

Killdeer

Common Loon

Cooper's Hawk

Wasn't much flying along the lake today - so no photos! 

New Quiz! New condo birding! Look ahead! Quiz Answers!

I feel the need to put something online!  New quiz photos! All taken from my balcony this morning... Answers should go online tomorrow (and hey, maybe a new quiz).. Answers to yesterday's post are below.

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Condo Birding - May 4th

Canada Goose  4
Mallard  8
Lesser Scaup  25
Surf Scoter  15
White-winged Scoter  35
Long-tailed Duck  200
Red-breasted Merganser  20
Common Loon  5
Double-crested Cormorant  100
Great Blue Heron  10
Osprey  1
Sharp-shinned Hawk  1
Cooper's Hawk  2
Killdeer  2
Spotted Sandpiper  2     durinal migrants
Lesser Yellowlegs  50     5 groups, dirunal migrants, all going W
Bonaparte's Gull  4
Ring-billed Gull  40
Herring Gull  18
Great Black-backed Gull  1
Caspian Tern  15
Common Tern  30
Rock Pigeon (Feral Pigeon)  4
Mourning Dove  8
Chimney Swift  15
Red-bellied Woodpecker  2     foy dirunal migrants
Downy Woodpecker  1
Northern Flicker  2
Eastern Kingbird  10     dirunal migrants
Warbling Vireo  2     dirunal migrants
Blue Jay  750     accurate count of dirunal migrants. 98% going EAST (why?!)
American Crow  8     one bird looked really large. one small looking bird escorted away by the locals (quiet)
Northern Rough-winged Swallow  20
Purple Martin  10
Tree Swallow  15
Bank Swallow  20
Barn Swallow  20
Cliff Swallow  10
Black-capped Chickadee  2
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher  3     1 dirunal migrant
Ruby-crowned Kinglet  1
Eastern Bluebird  5
American Robin  20
European Starling  450
Nashville Warbler  5
Northern Parula  1     foy - singing (first condo record - #190)
Yellow Warbler  13
Palm Warbler  2
Yellow-rumped Warbler  17
Chipping Sparrow  15     some dirunal migrants
Song Sparrow  1
White-throated Sparrow  6
White-crowned Sparrow  3     foy
Northern Cardinal  1
Red-winged Blackbird  950
Rusty Blackbird  10
Common Grackle  200
Brown-headed Cowbird  100
Orchard Oriole  1     female type dirunal migrant
Baltimore Oriole  5     dirunal migrants
House Finch  6
Purple Finch  7
Pine Siskin  125     two large flocks of 40, 50 birds - then small bits (sometimes mixed w/ AMGO)
American Goldfinch  125     steady small groups - much less than yest.
House Sparrow  8

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Look ahead - right now Friday looks like a vagrant day. There is a lot of chances over the next several days for awesome birding though! Get the right rain/migration mix and it'll be a day to remember.

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Quiz Answers (yesterdays post):


Bobolink
Pine Siskin
Rusty Blackbird
Chipping Sparrow
Yellow Warbler
Red-winged Blackbird
Red-winged Blackbird
American Robin
Chipping Sparrow
Purple Finch
Blue Jay
Yellow Warbler
Pine Warbler
Yellow-rumped Warbler
Pine Warbler
European Starling

PeregrinePrints highly irregular quiz!!! - Condo Birding Edition

All photos taken from my balcony this morning... I'll post the full ebird checklist at the bottom, but if you don't want to spoil the fun - do the quiz first! 

Canada Goose  12     FOY goslings

Wood Duck  1

American Black Duck  1

Mallard  12

Surf Scoter  25

White-winged Scoter  60

Long-tailed Duck  200

Hooded Merganser  2

Red-breasted Merganser  40

Ruddy Duck  10

Common Loon  16

Double-crested Cormorant  150

Green Heron  1     foy

Turkey Vulture  7

Osprey  2

Cooper's Hawk  1

Broad-winged Hawk  1

Killdeer  3

Spotted Sandpiper  2

Ring-billed Gull  40

Herring Gull  18

Great Black-backed Gull  1

Caspian Tern  15

Common Tern  20

Rock Pigeon (Feral Pigeon)  3

Mourning Dove  12

Chimney Swift  18

Belted Kingfisher  1

Downy Woodpecker  1

Northern Flicker  4

Eastern Kingbird  1     foy

Warbling Vireo  1     foy

Blue Jay  350

American Crow  8

Horned Lark  1

Northern Rough-winged Swallow  20

Purple Martin  15

Tree Swallow  45

Bank Swallow  1

Barn Swallow  30

Cliff Swallow  5

Black-capped Chickadee  2

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher  1     foy

Ruby-crowned Kinglet  2

Eastern Bluebird  2

American Robin  30

Brown Thrasher  1

European Starling  100

Nashville Warbler  1

Yellow Warbler  7

Palm Warbler  8

Pine Warbler  3

Yellow-rumped Warbler  14

Prairie Warbler  1     rare. first for condo. male arrived around 10am, sang 3 times, then never seen or heard again... probably just wandering around looking for a good place to spend the day? (not a dirunal migrant)

warbler sp.  25

Chipping Sparrow  29     diurnal migration

Song Sparrow  2

White-throated Sparrow  5

Northern Cardinal  2

Bobolink  4

Red-winged Blackbird  750

Rusty Blackbird  10

Common Grackle  300

Brown-headed Cowbird  175

Orchard Oriole  1     foy female type - dirunal migration

Baltimore Oriole  1     foy dirunal migrant

House Finch  5

Purple Finch  9     first condo record. dirunal migrants

Pine Siskin  24

American Goldfinch  500

House Sparrow  10

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It was a pretty exciting morning... Most of the birds moving were blackbirds, but there was also a large movement of Blue Jays and American Goldfinch... There was just enough neotropic migrants moving to keep me really excited...

A quick walk around edgelake park turned up more FOY - including Black-and-White, BT Green, Norther Parula, Scarlet Tanager etc. 

I'll be back at this tomorrow, and hopefully with a new photo quiz! I'll post the answers to this one tomorrow (hopefully) - so do it fast if you're interested!

It's the most wonderful time of year! Migration thoughts are still appearing on twitter... I'm keeping a very close eye on next Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday...... Very close indeed......