Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Fallout potential tomorrow at Point Pelee / Rondeau / Long Point

I've never knowingly observed/watched a serious "fallout" occur in weather forecasts and real-time radar images, but this is kinda what I would expect. Not the "best" setup I could dream up, but it has serious potential for incredible birding...

Above: the recent model run (NAM - North American Mesoscale) at high resoloution (4km) for tonight. The time equates to 11pm...

Note there is a heavy band of precip over the lake, but it's thin and probably involves a fair bit of Thunder and Lightning.

Above: same model, same run - showing 850mb winds and temps. There is warm air aloft, blowing from the SOUTH (it will be a cool east or NE at ground level)... This could push the birds right into the rain, where they are forced to make an emergency landing at your favourite vagrant spot...

WITH THAT SAID - forecasting the exact time/position of rain and wind is very hard, even at this late hour. If a single band appears south of Lake Erie, it could stop all movement and have the exact same birds present as today (if not less)... 

In order to get a truly spectacular day, the forecasting is on a knife edge between incredible and awful. Only way to know for sure is to be out there! 


Yest. quiz answers:

Wood Duck
Great Blue Heron
Eastern Bluebird
Spotted Sandpipers
Lesser Yellowlegs 
Blue Jays
Pine Siskin 
Eastern Kingbird
Lesser Yellowlegs
Common Loon
Cooper's Hawk

Wasn't much flying along the lake today - so no photos! 

1 comment:

  1. Im heading to Pelee tomorrow AM so fingers crossed. Nice tweet on the Barnacle Geese haha.