Sunday, May 24, 2015

One last kick at the 2015 rarity can

Summer Tan at the tip of Pelee - May 11 (I think). Picked out by Ken Burrell


Who doesn't like unusual birds? This year has seen a steady progression of decent to good rarity weather throughout the month of May, and it looks like the bird gods will give us yet another dose before the calendar shifts to June. Check out the surface forecast for tomorrow (Monday) morning - 

Another front pushing in from the south (even though the subtropical jet gets weaker as we go along) - we will still feel the effects of it in terms of rapid bird migrations. Check out the 850mb wind model run/guess from the NAM:

And then things keep on ripping straight through to Tuesday morning as well:

Things could remain interesting (less so, but interesting) on Wednesday as well (see below), and I don't really see anything "bad" on the forecast right through to the end of the month. We may not see enough precipitation to knock down the birds (maybe next weekend?) - but it's great for the birds themselves.

Here's hoping for a few more spectacular birds in the province this week - and we'll see what things are looking like for next weekend. The weather network seems to think we will have a massive cold front + rain (which would be an excellent grounding of late migrants headed to the arctic) - but I also don't really believe them at times. For now - Monday-Tuesday and maybe Wednesday for rares!

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