Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Gearing up for some October rare-birding

I wasted considerable time watching the track of Hurricane Matthew - waiting and waiting to see if Ontario, Quebec or Atlantic Canada was going to reap the bird-benefits that can be associated with destructive tropical weather systems to our south...

Needless to say - it didn't happen... (Which isn't entirely true, as a lot of energy from Matthew pulled into Newfoundland yesterday --- but I don't think anyone was out looking??)

Anyhoots -

Here's a very rough breakdown on some upcoming weather - that I think could make for some darn entertaining vagrant/rarity hunting style birding in the southern Great Lakes (or enjoyable birding in general - but this isn't a "fallout forecast") Some general thoughts:

- the persistent high pressure we've had in our region is finally sliding southwards - perhaps due to little more than normal climate/climatology

- as it slips south, we will be getting southerly flow and warm temperatures into our area from both receding high pressure centres and advancing low pressure systems (that are scooting NNE - unlike the usual NE or ENE)

- the pacific jet is burning up right now, pushing energy onto the continent

- some of that energy is related to ex-typhoons (maybe even the MJO a little?) - so we'll get some potent weather and lower pressures for the next little while....

So what's the weather breakdown?? -

Rapid fire:

Tomorrow (Weds) - SW flow aloft in advance of the front. Warm. 

Thursday: Front passing the great lakes. Strong NNW winds and clearing skies (hawks, diurnal migration!) 


Friday - calm, but note Hurricane Nicole and a powerful chain of low's coming ashore from the pacific

Saturday - SW flow starting over the great lakes. Note the two low's mid-continent from the energy that arrived on Saturday. Hurricane Nicole still visible (leaving) ... Low "Bombing" out on the west coast

Sunday - continental lows zipping north - leaving DRY SW flow into the southern great lakes

Monday - fairly calm, but SW flow STILL reaching the S. Great Lakes after the earlier "mid-continental" lows zip off the screen... Energy from the pacific bomb is now consolidating east of the rockies...

Tuesday - energy has pulled into one low... Only shows 1000mb on this map, but it's also 7 days out... GFS has been hinting at a ~980-985mb monster approaching the great lakes...

Wednesday - after semi-bombing-out on the GFS, the low is really wrapping around and bringing Franklin's-Gull-ish winds whipping out of the W... Could be grand Fort Erie lakewatching winds too!

So yeah... Could be great weather for those who like to get out and find something unexpected! Or perhaps will provide some sort of rarity to chase once it's found on that December 17th CBC in your area!

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