weird weather (and maybe not in a good way)

Weather be crazy..



As storm tracks pass very close to us in Southern Ontario - it makes is VERY difficult for forecasters to figure out if we're going to be warm or cool - slight changes in direction of the low pressure centre can mean we're warm and +15 or windy and +2 on any given day. Pretty much the only guarantee is precipitation (of some sort) when that happens...

This situation can be seen well in the 6-10 day outlook:

What we know - rain 

What we don't know - cold air above - warm below... Slight shifts could put us on either side (or maybe both for a day or two each)...

The 8-14 day outlook is finally starting to look at "Prime Time" - as the end (day 14) is roughly Apr 26th - right when things can REALLY start getting REALLY crazy (if the weather is right)...  Any do you know what I see in the long-range? More of the same - with less certainty. 

Cold to the north - but only a 30-50% change for our area 

Regardless of what happens -we'll likely see more "April Showers" later in April. 

Overall I'd say the forecast is looking poor for late April (right now).. But god knows the confidence in the longer-range weather right now is really low... 

Below is the GFS outlook for the end of the medium-range outlook (last 10-ish days of April) 

Looks like they're expecting below average from Texas to Pelee and beyond... 

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In the short-range weather forecast, we're finishing up with a strong low pressure system that passed below us... For the most part, all of March/April has been some of the best damn weather you could ask for - in fall migration........... And this storm fit the bill with a +70kmh NE wind gust recorded at the lift bridge this morning... 

Let's look ahead a few days:

SATURDAY - I'll be staying indoors.... 

SUNDAY: this looks like a great March set-up for a decent migration and a good day of hawkwatching at Beamer C.A. with high pressure below us: 

But being mid-april, we'll have to cross our fingers the birds don't get up too high - or that there are even birds to see at any height... 

MONDAY - low pressure flies back into the picture. This time they're calling for it to pass overhead (hopefully it doesn't change) and 15-17+ degrees on Monday... That will be another "flood" per-say of migrants into the southern reaches of the province overnight - ready to be found on Monday or Tuesday... I may have Monday off, so perhaps I'll have to do some work in my patch!?

See map below:

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Look at that beauty southerly flow moving into Ontario! 

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Overall I feel like Sunday/Monday would also be a fantastic 2 (or 3 - Tuesday) day trip to Point Pelee... Both days will have migrants all over the Pelee circle from waterfowl to gulls to shorebirds to passerines... Mornings at the tip should produce some neat reverse migrations... Heck - the photography might even be pretty good...

If I wasn't so lackadaisical about birding still - I'd seriously consider going! But I'll probably stick around home and do some "easy-going" birding at my patch and/or Beamer...