Still really exciting

We're less than a month away from the most exciting days of the entire year for birding!!!


For now, I'll update stuff about the sun! I'll do more bird photos and weather over the next little while. Still sorting out my life after returning home.


STOLEN - from www.solarham.net - awesome website. Check it out!

Added 03/31/2014 @ 09:55 UTC
Beautiful Eruption
Solar activity continues at moderate levels thanks to an M1.4 solar flare this morning observed around departing sunspot 2014 at 08:07 UTC. A beautiful eruption of plasma was captured during the event by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) as seen in the image below. Any associated coronal mass ejection (CME) would likely be directed away from Earth due to the location near the west limb. Click HERE to watch an awesome movie by SDO using the 304 angstroms channel.

Added 03/30/2014 @ 21:45 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Watch Issued
A minor geomagnetic storm watch has been issued by the NOAA space weather prediction center (SWPC). A couple of coronal mass ejections stemming from eruptions around 2017 may deliver glancing blows to our geomagnetic field by late on April 1st. Sky watchers should remain alert during the next several days.

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 31: None (Below G1) Apr 01: None (Below G1) Apr 02: G1 (Minor)
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Beamer Hawkwatch Alert - Sunday maybe, for sure Monday?

I expect a LOT of these beauties will pass through Sunday-Monday at Beamer!!!

As of the forecast right now, I'm guessing Monday could deliver a MONSTER flight of raptors at the Beamer Hawkwatch in Grimsby.

The classic "mid-march" weather may be in effect - high pressure, light winds. (North) Therefore I would expect these two situations:


Sunday - as of right now, winds are forecast to be north at 30kph. It will be VERY cold at Beamer, and the flight may end up totally dead. BUT - the birds are so far behind, they may fly anyways. If they do fly - the fight will be verrry enjoyable (just ignore the cold) - as they ride the updrafts along the ridge. Red-tails and Red-shoulders could put on a show.

Sunday is good weather to get a species like Peregrine Falcon or Northern Goshawk. If snow to the south doesn't totally shut down the flight (plus winds too strong from the north). 

Monday is currently calling for winds south at 10kph and 10 degrees. This is THEE day (based on the forecast). I would expect large numbers of several species (Red-tails, Shoulders, Bald Eagles, Harrier's, Rough-legs etc) - and maybe a large flight of Vultures as well. 

If a "lake breeze" kicks in, the large numbers may move inland - but a few hundred birds will ride the ridge and give great looks. If it doesn't kick in that much, I'd expect huge numbers to be all over the place (high/low etc). with great diversity. This is the type of forecast that could really make for an incredible day, but it's nearly impossible to predict exactly how the local geographical elements (lake, escarpment) will change the dynamics of a flight. 

If you want to see lots of birds, for sure - go both days. If you only have Sunday off (and want to see hawks) - give it a try Sunday. Monday looks best (right now) though. I'll update the comments section of this post over the next 24ish hours if anything major changes with the forecast.

Why is there still so much ice here?

What the heck? I was expecting spring when I came home!

A LOT of the Great Lakes ice is THICK still... 

When I was flying to BC - we flew over the Great Lakes! And I must say, it was really stunning to see Huron and Superior totally ice covered - with huge fractures all over the place in the broken surface. Very very cool stuff. Makes me wish I had my camera with me...

We're starting to see a MAJOR difference in the year-by-year look at ice cover... Typically this stuff is (has) melted more by this date. The above graph shows total ice cover (all great lakes) on the SAME week, each year. (In this case, the chart was updated March 24th). 

By the looks of it - we still had 79% cover!!! Compared to 9% in 2012 and 1% in 2011... That's a HUGE difference...

From NOAA's monthly outlook for April (Issued March 20th) - 

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THURSDAY MAR 20 2014

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APRIL 2014

ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY CONSIDERED FOR APRIL. THE FIRST GUESS FOR APRIL IS THE 0.5 MONTH LEAD MAM SEASONAL FORECAST ISSUED ONE MONTH AGO. THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FOR CONTINUATION OF THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN THAT RESEMBLES WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ALL WINTER I.E WARMTH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST. DYNAMICAL TOOLS AND SOME OF THE EMPIRICAL TOOLS SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THIS PATTERN FOR AT LEAST APRIL. COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE APRIL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES AN AREA OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND NORTHEAST. SOME OF THE COLD MAY BE AMPLIFIED IN COASTAL AREAS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES SINCE ICE COVER IS PRESENTLY HIGH AND, ONCE UNFROZEN, WATER TEMPERATURE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SOME TIME. TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS WITH A WEAK EXTENSION ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATED RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO ALASKA SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. BELOW AVERAGE SEA ICE EXTENT AND ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE BERING SEA ALSO SUPPORT THIS FORECAST.


---------------------

If the temps stay on the cool side, the lakes will stay COLD (especially with all that ice bouncing the heat away)... That may mean we'll be in for a much cooler SUMMER because of it... Maybe more so for Superior, Huron and Michigan, but still noteworthy. 

Anyways... We could be less than a month away from the first MAJOR push of tropical migrants (and VAGRANTS!) into the Great Lakes... Stick here for any weather news about when and where the birding will be epic!!!

Home from BC!

Flew home on the 26th, arrived late. Oh the things that happen while one is away. I'll have to tell you about it sometime! Not now... Cause I have things to do (eg/ Laundry) but eventually...

The highlight photo of the trip!

400 "self found" in Ontario?!

Someone had a blog post several weeks ago that joked at the idea of "self finding" 400 birds in Ontario (no twitching!) Which (as you can imagine) got me thinking...

I'm currently at 345 "self found" species for the province... And I know that everyone has slightly (or dramatically) different opinions on what exactly a "self found" bird is... I typically follow the punkbirder rules:

http://punkbirder.webs.com/selffoundrules.htm


So with that, I wanted to break down some species that are NOT on my self found list, that may (someday) pile up to the point of reaching 400 "self found" species for the province... Some examples:


EASY PEASY-

Willow Ptarmigan
Yellow Rail
Gray Partridge
Northern Bobwhite
Smith's Longspur
Boreal Owl

The Bobwhite is a tough one... I have no quarrels with counting an "established population" as self found, if it's the only place you could possibly see/count it in the province. It's a gray area. I wouldn't count Gray Partridge at the Brantford Airport (a specific twitch to a small area) - but Bobwhite would take enough effort wandering around Walpole Island to actually "find".


New "SF" list - 351... Next up:


Fairly Easy -

Piping Plover
Western Kingbird
Townsend's Solitaire
Lark Sparrow
Little Blue Heron
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher
Slaty-backed Gull
White-winged Dove
Northern Wheatear
Northern Fulmar

If I bird long enough in the province (an "if"), I fully expect to unexpectedly cross paths with all of those beauties someday... Some of these (like the fulmar) are location specific (Netitishi) which bump them to this category.

New "SF" list - 361.... Next up -


Bonafide Rares!!!

Curlew Sandpiper
Black-necked Stilt
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron
Tricoloured Heron
Great Cormorant
Painted Bunting
Mountain Bluebird
Lark Bunting
Spotted Towhee
Black-throated Gray Warbler
Chuck-will's-widow
Swallow-tailed Kite
White-faced Ibis
Say's Phoebe
Golden-crowned Sparrow
Purple Gallinule
Ivory Gull
Cinnamon Teal
Bell's Vireo
Ash-throated Flycatcher

One could easily go multiple lifetimes without finding some of these species (in Ontario) - but I do think there's a pretty solid chance of nailing many of them. All it takes is time (and insanity) and you could pull it off... Some of these species are tailored to my birding locations/style, and may be different on your own list...

New "SF" List - 381... This is getting rough... Next up:

MEGA STORM BIRDS!

Wilson's Storm-Petrel
Black-capped Petrel
Sooty Tern
Thick-billed Murre
Razorbill

I love storm birding, and I watch the "big ones" come from a long ways out... These are some "classic" species that I may have a bit of an advantage to 'self find' some day...


SF List - 386... Getting reallly rough... Next up:

10 totally random uber-rares:

Gray-crowned Rosy Finch
Sharp-tailed Sandpiper
Ancient Murrelet
Cassin's Sparrow
Bewick's Wren
Swainson's Warbler
Sage Thrasher
Manx Shearwater
Black-bellied Whistling Duck
Magnificent Frigatebird

Ok that's 396... This is NUTS! At least some could give you some help (eg, BB Whistling Duck or Fulvous), Or Frigatebird Sp....

All I need is four more... How about:

Wilson's Plover
Least Tern
Fork-tailed Flycatcher
Yellow-billed Loon....



There you have it... All I need to do is find ALL of those species and I'd have it! Nuts... Not really a goal one could have in mind I think... Other than just birding for fun and seeing what happens. (It's a lifetime goal)... If I were to come close, I would guess that I'd get maybe ~40 of the species listed here, and at least 15ish species not even covered here...

Anyways, just some fun!

Old Goose Article (Cackling)

Years ago I did a lot of field work in some goose-heavy areas... That meant - I saw a lot of Cackling Geese...

So I decided to write about my experiences in detecting the little beggers...

http://peregrineprints.com/zzzz_Article_WCgeese.htm


I figured with my recent "goose thoughts" - I would pump it one more time!

Is the goose, loose?

Just a random rare-bird-finding thought... I think 2014 is the year Ontario either gets its first record of PINK-FOOTED GOOSE, or its second (accepted) record of BARNACLE GOOSE...

Why?

First - I think the added ice and snow is going to concentrate some massive flocks of birds in far-eastern-Ontario along the St. Lawrence - giving observers the reason to visit and view the spectacle. Therefore also giving them a chance to actually find one of those two beauties if they're present.

Second - I just think we're overdue at this point...

Typically I would keep some of this information to myself.. Why? Partially because I'm just guessing, but also because I would selfishly want to find one myself!!! With that said, it's starting to look like I am going to be REALLY busy during the best times anyways... So I may not be able to make the most of it...

Therefore - I'm going to share some thoughts on how to find one! 

1.) - Don't sweat the Snow Geese! - Sure, they're beautiful... But based on my research, the Barnacle or Pink-footed is going to be associated with CANADA Geese instead. I'm sure you'll happily find a Ross's Goose among those Greater-Snow's, or even a White-fronted. But the gold birds could be elsewhere. 

2.) - Visit sites during GREAT lighting.... If the sun is in your eyes, it's going to be rough scanning a few thousand Canada Geese. Maybe a cloudy day would be better, depending on when and where you're looking?

3.) Quickly learn their behaviour. I've often found that geese head to the fields much more often on windy days, and less-so on calm ones. Also - a roost site can be amazing at dusk. The more geese you see, the higher your odds are of seeing more species! 

4.) Scan EVERY goose... This is something I typically do with all birds, but goose-specifically - I OFTEN see Cackling Geese as the one or two birds, on the extreme edge of a flock (or even distancing themselves from other birds) as an example... A rapid scan is fun, but that Pink-foot could easily be 30ft to the side, by itself. 

5.) Rare birds are rare... Another time tested and true bit of advice, they're rare for a reason. You can do everything right, and see nothing. Make it fun! The more fun you have, the more you'll look, and the more you'll end up seeing.

Based on my research, it looks like March 25 to April 2 is historically "prime time" for those beasts to move inland from the coast. Things may be totally whacky this year with the weather, so keep your eyes peeled for reports of big CANADA Goose movements around this time frame, or potentially a little later.

Another "wave" of Barnacles and Pink-foots seem to move in the April 22-May 1 time frame, but by then I'm worried about SW Ontario (so I won't be looking) - but something to keep in mind if you live that way. 

Good luck out there!

Horn tooting

Check it out! A while ago I had an image on the cover of North American Birds! It was that mighty-fine Thick-billed Kingbird from Presqu'ile in 2012... WHAT a BIRD!!!!

Check it out here - http://nab.aba.org/i/233397

Happy Spring!

Too soon?

2015 ABA BIG YEAR!

You should do one! You didn't think  I was going to, did you? Yikes... No thanks...

Recently, NOAA issued an "El Nino Watch"... Jeff Master's details it here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2642

This was after a recent (awesome) post on the same blog, by guest blogger Michael Ventrice - who suggested a "big" el nino event count be on its way:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2635

SO what does it mean? 

Well I think the increased storm track in the southern USA (and amplified storms) help bring vagrants to places like Alaska, California, Texas and Florida - all places you'd want to see vagrants when doing an ABA big year...

Also - it may suck for us, but Hurricane's in the Atlantic usually do poorly in El Nino years (due to all the heat being in the near pacific) - so we may count that one out for 2014... But hey - it only takes one...

So yeah, good luck!

Condo Birding Update - Feb 18 to .......

On Feb 17th note - a nearby Fish Crow! Hopefully it decides to take up residence in ma hood! (Presumably the same bird I had by the condo on Feb 3, but who knows).

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S17083550


Feb 18th - 3 Glaucous Gulls in the morning, possibly/probably part of the 14+ birds I recorded the day before!

Feb 19 - not much at all..

OBSERVATIONS HAVE ENDED FOR THE PERIOD

I started my usual summary post, but wasn't home much - and now I'm leaving... Maybe these will start up again in April? But maybe not... I put up a little message on the top right of the blog (trying to say sorry in advance as I fall behind on everything). I'm out of here! (I actually left a week ago - everything is auto-posting)

Have these maps updated yet?

I'm not home to check, but how do they look? (They update frequently, i'm just wondering when we'll see some orange in the great lakes region)??

6-10 day outlook

8-14 day outlook

ebird-ing with Ken-tucky

I recently teamed up with Ken-tucky Burrell for a days birding around Lake Erie... Things were slow, but darn good for the dead-of-winter... (Aka March)...

To save some time, here's our best ebird lists -

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S17283012

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S17283013

http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S17283014


There were some good birds snuck in there! A singing White-crowned Sparrow was my highlight (sounded amazing in the cold) - but birds like Red-headed Woodpecker also delighted.

Ken! - his blog - http://kenburrell.blogspot.ca/

Let's get him posting more!

Beamer (Hawkwatch) Thoughts - March 2014

I (pretty much) started my birding career at Beamer Conservation Area in Grimsby... The location of the Niagara Peninsula Hawkwatch, the raptors passing overhead did a pretty good job of getting me "hooked" - and from there, it's history.

Fast forward a bunch of years (16? 17? 18?) and I've done my fair share of hawkwatching around the province - spring and fall! So now, I'm going to do my best to guess some possible situations for how things are going to shake down over the next 4 weeks...

Some of the absolute best days at Beamer in the spring are pretty darn cold. Once Red-shouldered Hawks start to arrive, look or days where the forecast says something along the lines of "Sunny, winds sound 5kph (or 10kph)... 

These conditions occur during high pressure - and the bright sun starts to provide some heat to the land - causing the air to rise. The super-cool Lake Ontario however has other thoughts in mind, causing air to sink as it passes over. What happens next? A lake breeze! Winds at beamer will shift to the NE at 10-20kph and you'll have the perfect setup. Air riding up the face of the escarpment - providing lift for migrating Red-tails and Red-shoulders - to pass by (just to the north) - low enough for some fantastic views!

If you get the above conditions, you'll have a pretty good day (as long as it isn't stupidly cold). Beyond that, i see some wild cards for the migration this spring (March).

Wildcard #1 - there are a LOT of raptors south of us this winter. Especially Rough-legged Hawks, Northern Harriers and American Kestrels. These species BAILED out of the province with all of our cold and snow. Sooner or later, they're going to return. Will beamer see superb counts of these species in 2014???

Wildcard #2 - AWFUL WEATHER. All indications are pointing towards continued outbreaks of exceptionally cold air well into March. Will birds like Turkey Vultures move north in March, if it stays cold? We may be setting ourselves up for a remarkable flight in April - if things stay awful for the entire month. 

- but I've also seen the opposite happen. Maybe those Harriers and Rough-legs (mentioned earlier) will push north anyways - under conditions that do NOT concentrate them at Beamer... Causing the flight to be "missed"... This seems to happen most often with Broad-wings, but could easily apply this March to others with bad weather. 

- the only benefit I see from this cold air would be a possible increase in Bald Eagle sightings - simply because they are focused around Lake Ontario right now will all this added ice. Heck, they may not all be migrants - but the people at Beamer will count them!

So yeah! Some random thoughts. We'll see how it shakes down. I won't be around to watch though (until late March at the possible earliest).