Monday, November 2, 2015

Moderate Cave Swallow Alert? Moderate Rarity Alert? - Weds to Friday


S or SW flow into the great lakes - and it's gonna be warm! Perhaps another moderate dose of rares could reach our shores? I don't have really high hopes for anything too nutty - but warm air in the first week of November sure sounds good to me...

By Thursday the S or SW winds will be stronger and the fetch will be greater. This feels like a classic CASW setup to me... I mean, it could be better - but it's the right time of year, 20C and decent winds. I'll have my fingers crossed (and again, maybe we'll get real lucky and something else will come along). 

One issue I see with this forecast are the hints of precipitous precipitation around Lake Erie... These little bits of rain can sometimes make or break the birding - but are nearly impossible to forecast in advance. It could ground all of the austral migrants at your house, or it could block any birds from arrival at all! (CASW included)... 

Friday is a bit "up in the air" ... The big models have rain pushing in fast with fairly strong SW winds... If it holds off a bit, maybe we'll get a real dose of CASW. Maybe waterbirds will take advantage of the winds and your standard locales will be hopping.

One thing is for sure - the storm is going to "bomb" and rocket away to the NE - so even if it gets stormy, it may not last for very long...

Exit - stage left (8am Saturday)

So yeah! I don't want to get toooo excited, but 20C in November and S winds has got to bring something, right? Our general weather right now is starting to trend away from that split-jet-flow I talked about a few weeks ago - but basic climatology may be at play too (that means, things get stormy in Nov, pretty much every Nov). 

For now, I'll be keeping my eyes peeled for local birds, but perhaps making an effort on Thursday (and maaaybe Friday, but maybe not) for Cave Swallow and other goodies!  

Only way to find something neat with this weather is to get out there and look! 

(a bird I've seen on warm Nov SW winds a few times before... CASW are an indicator to me that things are happening!) 

1 comment:

  1. Bring it on! I'll probably make a similar post for coastal New England as we get later into the week. Here's hoping!