The Niagara Penninsula Hawkwatch starts this Friday... And many a year have passed where we get a blast of warm air in February and Killdeer start arriving...
This year, we could get at least 15cm of snow tomorrow (Feb 27) and cool temps should persist for at least the next 10-12 days. Check out the 8-14 day temp anaylsis for the USA (where are birdies will be coming from):
The beauty of spring migration is that birds are all crazy trying to get back to the breeding grounds quickly, so I'm sure things will continue to progress.. Heck, Tundra Swans fly regardless of any external factors that are in place. Tundra Swan don't care.
But it'll probably be a while before we get a major migration event where there are thousands of Robins, Blackbirds and Killdeer pouring overhead at any given moment and hurls southern Ontario back into constant bird activity and song...
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I finally had the chance to do some digging and look for any significance to our north winds... I used the GFS forecast wind maps, and this is what I found:
Winds forecast for Feb 28th around Mid day.... The low is drawing air from norther hudson bay!
Mid day Mar 1st - the winds are STILL blowing from the far north.. North of James Bay...
Mar 3rd - winds are still coming from far northern Ontario to Lake Ontario-ish...
So we have at least 60-ish hours of sustained long-distance winds starting on Feb 28th... Meaning the 28th- Mar 5th will be the time we start to see any unusual bird observations from the storm - IF there are any...
This is a bit of a theory that I've been working on with vagrants - it seems basic - but a good indication of where your rare birds will be coming from is to trace the winds backwards... Now I focus on usual wind conditions (like winds coming very long distances in a specific direction without any breaks) and then watch the eventual outcome...
So what kind of birds are north of hudson bay this time of year? Not much.. Not much at all... King Eider or Hoary Redpoll may be a decent bet... Maybe a slight increase in northern owl sightings in Ontario like Great Grays or Boreals... Maybe a nice Gyrfalcon somewhere - if we're lucky.. Ivory Gull? - Yes, they're up there on the ice... Althouhg I clearly pump this species constantly (if you haven't noticed) due to my personal desire to see one in ON...
Again - I'd file this one in the 6/10 excitement factor.. I will probably keep a closer eye on the lake from my Condo for a few days, and keep an eye on ontbirds, but I'm not excactly going into red alert.. Hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised though with something epic!
==================Many thanks to those who made it out to my talk on Sandy last night! I hope it was enjoyable and that I didn't ramble about the weather tooo much ;)
Lost in the anticipation of the neotropical migration event that happens in spring is the reverse migration of the winter birds. All those redpolls, grosbeaks and snowy owls that went further south during the winter have to come back at some point. These north winds are probably throwing up a big stop sign to their movement north that has more than likely been taking place over the last week with the warm weather. I always looked at it like the fall movement of sparrows going south. This is the `fall movement` for winter birds as they return to their less visible areas.
ReplyDeleteI have my fingers crossed that it holds the northern Owls in Thunder Bay for a few more weeks ;)
DeleteTwo Ivory Gulls near St. John's, NL so far...
ReplyDeleteI'm darn excited about it, considering I can't be there...
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