A solid disclaimer for this post (and all my other posts)... "Model Runs" are NOT FORECASTS...
High res run of the NAM Model for this Thursday/Friday storm (Friday morning look)... This thing is a monster! Although I would call it a perfect "fall" storm - it sure isn't "fall"...
Still calling for a 976mb monster.... I'm excited to see what the effects are on our birdlife. It's the WORST time of year (or nearly so) - but the storm is awesome...
Looking at the winds (GFS model run here)... Winds from Missouri hitting Lake Erie... A check of ebird shows that there isn't much happening in Missouri right now... Some notable birds - Snow, Ross's and Greater White-fronted Geese... Pintail, Shovellers etc... White Pelicans? If I were to pick a "mega" vagrant, I'd have to go with Great-tailed Grackle - but that's super unlikely
Maybe that's why we don't really see vagrants this time of year... One's I would target are Slaty-backed Gull or Tufted Duck (if I had the "vagrant finding itch" right now, which I don't, really)...
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Another friendly reminder - it's going to be COLD COLD COLD after this little storm moves away :)
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Here are the warnings (4pm on Feb 19th) for our upcoming storm... Nothing to do with birds, but this could get messy with LOTS of rain and LOTS of melting snow all at once...
City of Hamilton
3:59 PM EST Wednesday 19 February 2014
Rainfall warning for
City of Hamilton continued
Major storm bringing 25 - 50 mm of rain Thursday and Friday.
An Alberta clipper and Texas low will be tracking towards the Great Lakes where they will merge and rapidly intensify. This storm system will bring rising temperatures to Southern Ontario along with significant precipitation and strong winds.
Rain is expected to begin over Southwestern Ontario near midday Thursday then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe Thursday afternoon reaching the Kingston area early Thursday evening. There is a chance that a brief period of snow, freezing rain or ice pellets may precede the rain as temperatures rise from just below freezing to above.
Total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm are expected over the warned areas, with the highest amounts forecast to be in the Windsor-Sarnia to Hamilton-Niagara corridor. In addition, thunderstorms will be possible over Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, and may result in locally higher rainfall amounts. Significant snow melt due to the rising temperatures will also be a concern.
As the rain comes to an end from west to east Friday, winds will increase out of the southwest with gusts to 70 or 80 km/h possible, particularly along the great lake shores.
Meteorologists continue to monitor the development of these weather systems.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
3:59 PM EST Wednesday 19 February 2014
Rainfall warning for
City of Hamilton continued
Major storm bringing 25 - 50 mm of rain Thursday and Friday.
An Alberta clipper and Texas low will be tracking towards the Great Lakes where they will merge and rapidly intensify. This storm system will bring rising temperatures to Southern Ontario along with significant precipitation and strong winds.
Rain is expected to begin over Southwestern Ontario near midday Thursday then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe Thursday afternoon reaching the Kingston area early Thursday evening. There is a chance that a brief period of snow, freezing rain or ice pellets may precede the rain as temperatures rise from just below freezing to above.
Total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm are expected over the warned areas, with the highest amounts forecast to be in the Windsor-Sarnia to Hamilton-Niagara corridor. In addition, thunderstorms will be possible over Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, and may result in locally higher rainfall amounts. Significant snow melt due to the rising temperatures will also be a concern.
As the rain comes to an end from west to east Friday, winds will increase out of the southwest with gusts to 70 or 80 km/h possible, particularly along the great lake shores.
Meteorologists continue to monitor the development of these weather systems.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
Snowfall warnings, winter storm watches, and special weather statements for northern Ontario.... Every part of Ontario has some type of statement-warning from this system. Woot!
Check here for more details: http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html
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