Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Weather wonderings - more rarities on the way?

After the last weather alert, we had some good birds! (Sample:)

Violet-green Swallow in Port Burwell
Piping Plover in Hamilton
Laughing Gull in Oakville
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron at Col Sam
Snowy Egret at Holiday BCA

Not bad! I also saw a report of a Laughing Gull and a JAEGER at Derby Hill, NY - things are picking up!!!


So, with that said - there is some more cool weather on the way! Maybe not quite as cool as on the 13/14th range - but perhaps "more total days" of interesting weather between now and the weekend...

Solid 1006mb low sitting over the centre of the great lakes tomorrow (today!!!) at 8am... Rains right around Hamilton... Could it ground some migrants? Could it bring some rares? I may just have to sit on my balcony and watch... I don't have a map saved for Hamilton's Long-billed Curlew from a few years ago - but it was right around this day with scattered rain and light winds (just like the forecast says) - and it looks pretty cool to me!

I also might expect something like an Avocet (or several) at Long Point on a day like this... 

Forecast for Friday - strange line of low's (all weak) from the open ocean to Lake Superior... East winds in the forecast for this day... Could we pull something off the coast and onto Lake Ontario? Who knows! But I'll be watching.. We're combining semi-good weather outlooks for the next several days, with a PRIME season for MEGA's 

Worth taking a look!

Speaking of Avocets (something I'd love to get for my condo-list) - have you noticed that shorebirding has been pretty darn POOR in southern Ontario to date? I haven't really been out - but I'm also not inspired by any reports I'm seeing... So what's up?

I think shorebirds are pretty strong fliers (well, I know they are) - so where I typically look for "fall weather" for migrants (eg,/ north winds) - I actually have found that SOUTH winds and heat can be good for fall shorebirding in our area... We lack some really good habitat - so we need some "poor" weather to put them down in our sub-par locations... Poor being a hot headwind that they don't want to fly into!

Just my guess - but we've hardly had any heatwaves this summer - and I think that's why we're lacking so far... Better habitat wouldn't hurt either...

Starting to arrive!

All of this "cold" summer weather we've been having reminds me a LOT of last year - and our super cold winter. Big kinks in the jetstream bringing northerly air.. (Call it the polar vortex if you want, but that's just a misuse of the name for a real weather phenomenon) - maybe we'll be in for ANOTHER super cold winter???

All of those el nino forecasts would say no, but they've been pretty bad/wrong so far!

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