Planning to find a rare bird this weekend...

Edit - I wrote this Wednesday night - and by Thursday morning the forecast is already looking far less exciting than it was.... But I decided to post this anyways....

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Friday -

Strong southerly flow extending into the province... 

Everywhere south of Parry sound to north of Kingston... Based on the proposed rain limits, it looks like it will be pretty clear right t Long Point and maybe Fort Erie... (and mayyybe Pelee)....\

The last time there was a setup like this, an Anhinga and  Least Tern were seen on Lake Michigan... But (as with a LOT of rare birds) they were essentially "passage" birds - not nailed down for a twitch...

Some places to check:

Sarnia/Lake St. Clair could catch something... 

Pelee (the tip) is always good on a SW wind - but perhaps not to 'catch' these vagrants early on Friday... 

Harbours like Erieau, Port Stanley and Port Burwell could have a stroke of luck... 

Long Point is always good, if you're out there..

Personally, I might try from Niagara Falls down to Fort Erie then to Port Colborne... (in some sort of order).. If I can escape my patch.. 

Possible rare Predictions 

- "Regular rare" Souther Heron (plegadis ibis, Snowy Egret or Little Blue Heron?) in far SW Ontario (sarnia to rondeau and SW).. 

- the Lake Erie Brown Pelican returning to Pelee - or maybe Long Point or Fort Erie

- Laughing Gull at one of the Lake Erie sheltered spots - Port Burwell??... 

Best chance for a mega - Toss up between Port Stanley/Burwell and Fort Erie... Rare waterbird is the one... (Least Tern?) 

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Saturday - 

Timing is everything - and this looks like a toss-up right now...

Will there be grounded migrants? 

Will there be western rares (avocet or something?) 

Will some areas (like Fort Erie- still have a strong SW wind for the morning? 

I have a sneaky suspicion this will be the type of day where someone finds something great while birding their local area... Perhaps it arrived on the great weather friday (south) - perhaps it is riding the cold front Saturday (west) - or perhaps it arrived 10 days ago and was just recently found... The problem is rain - maybe no one will go out and the "rare" will be found Sunday.. 

(I also have little doubt there will be some very good birds at Cape Henrietta Maria this day as well, if you can get there...) 

Possible rare Predictions - 

OBRC rarity "landbird" (White-winged Dove?) at Long Point... 

Southern Warbler (Yellow-throated Warbler) somewhere random (Toronto?) - or perhaps a Summer Tanager... 

Annnddd... maybe a  Western Sandpiper somewhere that has habitat (Windemere in Hamilton??) - given that few (none?) have been reported this fall.. 

Best chance for a mega - Toss up for Point Pelee or Presqu'ile . via putting in the time and stumbling upon a uber-rare passerine in the shrubbery. (Cassin's Kingbird?) 

Tip of Long Point gets cut for not being accessible... 

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Sunday - beauty weather and NE winds (maybe)... 

This is "clean up" day... Anywhere could have a great bird (and great birding) after the recent weather systems we've had... NE winds are good for the lakeshore woods (Prince Edward County, Presqu'ile etc) out east... 

Typical Lakewatch at Van Wagner's Beach conditions

SW Ontario collects the rarest birds that vacate the province...

Possible rare Predictions: 

- Northern Wheatear in eastern Ontario 

- Van Wagner's Beach gets some good birds with Pomarine Jaegers and Red Phalarope - but also a Franklin's Gull... 

- Pelee and/or Holiday Beach are situated for something good.. Swainson's Hawk almost seems too easy...

Best chance for a mega- Holiday Beach could shock and awe with something mega (diurnal migrant) from the SW (Swallow-tailed Kite??)... 

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I think like this every time I plan a birding day/weekend etc. First time I've gone "all out" with a post (just for fun)...

The short and sweet (in my mind) to find a mega (which is always my goal) - 

Friday - waterbirds via lakewatching at the right places... 

Saturday - best chance for a rare passerine

Sunday - best chance all weekend for a mega as they leave via SW Ontario.. 

Obviously there is NO substitute in birding to "putting in the time" ... I think it'd be a great weekend to spend at Pelee, but I also have a hard time justifying the 6+ hour drive to slightly increase my chances at a great bird.. (eg - 20% chance at Pelee Sunday vs. 10% chance from my balcony).. So I'll probably just stay home and bird locally - but hey! It's fun (for me) to think about these things....

Have any predictions of your own?