This storm system STILL looks very interesting....

Clearly the last storm system brought some rare birds... This one looks better (on paper)...


I REALLY REALLY don't understand what exactly brings these rare birds into the province (eg,/ what part of the storm)... There is a strong correlation to a "big storm" and "good birds turning up" - but the DAYS that the birds are found DO NOT match the interesting weather. They always seem to occur a day or two before OR after.. WHY?!

(I don't know why)...

All I know is - another big one is on the way...

Storm taking shape today..

Oct 31st... Pretty good structure, with two lows stretched along a frontal boundary... Very strong south winds hitting southern Ontario (and warm temps) - but will the rain block any good birds from arriving?! (Does anyone know?!) 

OH MY GAWD! - Nov 1st - the Low's have merged into one and the storm "bombs out" (phasing of the jet stream?) to a MONSTER 971mb low...  (This looks like FRANKLIN'S GULLS to my eye)... 

Nov 2nd - the system RACES away to the NE....

Disclaimer - these are just a single run of the GFS (runs 4 times per day)... The official forecast from NOAA looks to be a bit weaker, but still dang strong... Marine forecasts are calling for 35 knots for Lake Erie and Ontario......... 

This is one of those events where it will be interesting to see what is found over the next 7-ish days in the province. Hopefully the weekend weather is nice and lots of birders get out to find anything that has been dropped

 (Hamilton Fall Bird Count is this Sunday!) 

--------------------------

From Env Canada - 

Scary conditions loom for Halloween. And the weather will be rather
unsettled as well.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
'tis the season for Colorado lows and this week is no exception. A
developing Colorado low will make its way towards Ontario Wednesday
night, ushering in a wet windy but warmer Thursday. Periods of rain
are slated to begin Wednesday night across Southwestern Ontario
reaching Toronto towards dawn Thursday.

Trick or treaters may have a rather wet time during the evening hours
especially from Southwestern Ontario and northeastwards through
Georgian Bay and beyond. But the rain may be more sporadic across the
Niagara, Greater Toronto and Eastern Ontario regions until later in
the evening when steadier rain is likely to set in. So ghouls and
goblins in and around regions neighbouring Lake Ontario may luck out
for part of the evening. The howl of the wind may also accompany that
of the werewolf, as gusty winds bring in mild temperatures for
Halloween revelers.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

END/OSPC


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It's not exactly Hurricane Sandy - but it's the best we've got right now! 

(This post will auto-post 2 hours prior to the 1 year anniversary of the utter insanity that occured at Van Wagner's Beach - http://www.blog.peregrineprints.com/2012/10/wow-photos-of-first-leachs-storm-petrel.html )