Friday, July 13, 2012

Josh Vandermulen’s Big Year – personal breakdown




The current ebird leader for Ontario is none other than Josh Vandermulen, who we all know is making a superb run at the Ontario Big Year record.... Currently sitting at 318 species (written Jul 8), I decided to use his info (from his blog) and do a breakdown of my own...

He has broken down the Ontario checklist into “codes” – for how rare each species is. Using his 6 month recap, he noted the following birds he is still missing:


Code 1: 

Stilt Sandpiper

--- needless to say, this one is a lock,  so let’s give his 318 a +1 to a hypothetical 319


Code 2:

Red Knot
Purple Sandpiper
Buff-breasted Sandpiper
Red-necked Phalarope
Parasitic Jaeger
Arctic Tern
Nelson’s Sparrow

--- Josh made the code 2 group as a “harder to get” list – but ones he fully expects to get. And let’s be honest here, if he misses any of these species on a “big year” – we’re going to disown him...319 is now +7 to 326!



Code 3: this is where I think he expected to miss a few...

Pacific Loon
Glossy Ibis
Gyrfalcon
Red Phalarope
Long-tailed Jaeger
Black-legged Kittiwake
Sabine’s Gull
Black Guillemot
Western Kingbird
Cave Swallow

It’s a tough list to break down.  I’m going to put a few species into a new honorary “Code 2” category --- where if he misses them.... Well......



Gyrfalcon
Red Phalarope
Long-tailed Jaeger
Black-legged Kittiwake
Sabine’s Gull

Before we know it, we’ve got 5 more “locks” – racing upwards to 331 ... And these are the “locks” people...



The remaining “code 3” birds –

Pacific Loon
Glossy Ibis
Black Guillemot
Western Kingbird
Cave Swallow

Now we enter the realm of guess work, but if he DOESN’T get 3 of these 5 species, I’m going to slap him... Can you say 334?



Code 4: we haven’t even started code 4 yet, and he’s 5 species shy of the Ontario record! Here’s some code 4 goodies I actually think he has a solid chance of getting:

White-faced Ibis
Eurasian Collared Dove
Northern Fulmar
Rufous Hummingbird
Northern Wheatear
Northern Gannet
Swainson’s Hawk
Townsends Solitaire
Little Blue Heron
Ruff

Between birding your backside off, and twitching, you could practically get 5 of these species sealed and in the bag + tagged.  WFIB, ECDO, NOWH are the hardest of the bunch... But Gannet, Little Blue, Ruff, Solitaire, Swainson’s Hawk ---- are all very very doo-able if you’ve got the spare time. Heck, Netitishi owes me a friggin Fulmar.. and I’d gladly pass it along to Josh for the big year list!




So there you have it. Done. New big year record... Pretty much doesn’t even have to try anymore...
But just for fun, I’m going to delve a little deeper and see where a few more species could come from:


Rare fall flycatcher: get one of Fork-tailed, Say’s, Vermillion, Ash-throated, or a different “Yellow” Kingbird???

Ducks: still some ducks... Cinnamon Teal, Tufted, a whistler, Common Eider...

A “western” Warbler? *cough* - Black-throated Gray, Hermit, Virginia’s, Townsends?

Drought Season: how about an extra Heron like Tricoloured, Yellow-crowned, White Ibis, Wood Stork, Spoonbill? It has been a good start so far...

Pelagic species: Netitishi alone should be good for one of these: Shearwater sp, Storm-Petrel, Alcid sp (Dovekie, Thick-billed Murre, Puffin, Razorbill, Murrelett) , Great Skua, Albatross sp,

GULLS: god I love gulls... Ivory, Ross’s, Mew, Slaty-backed, Black-tailed, Glaucous-winged, etc etc etc

Hurricane: -- wait... I’m not even going to go there.....

Rare shorebird: rare shorebirds are great.. So many species I could pick here...



And those are the predictable ones! The recent Frigatebird shows that crazy things can happen at crazy times... One epic storm in the fall could really make something nutty happen......

So yeah! I guess all we can do is watch and see how it plays out... But I’m going to make a mid-season prediction and say he at least hits 340!



(unpredictable goodies await... )


4 comments:

  1. It seems amazing to me that he could do it because I birded a lot with Coady in 1996 and he went after EVERYTHING. 1996 was a very good year with lots of rarities plus the hurricane which gave him about 4. Also he went to Hudson Bay to get two or three Vandermeulen won't. He took no holidays and was always ready for a twitch.
    Maybe we should finance Josh to go to Hudson Bay. I will kick in $100 if 8 others do likewise. (return flight Sioux Lookout to Winisk.) He must do it soon though
    if he does.

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  2. Heck I would even pitch in 100$ towards that trip! Or maybe one in the winter, to get 2 ptarmigans ;)

    Interesting post, Brandon. I'm excited for Netitishi!

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  3. Good luck with your BIG year! Thanks to the movie, I now know what it is lol

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  4. It's going to be tough. I don't think Josh is going to nail down as many codes 3 and 4 birds as you're suggesting. I think if the record's broken this year, it's going to be had on less 3 and 4's, and more 5 or 6-ers. Still doable. Like some alcid is bound to pop up in the Ottawa or Niagara River... heck, individually they're each a 5 or 6 maybe, but as a family I'd move alcids up to a 4. Gulls too, bound to get at least one of those show up. In fact, I'm thinking you shouldn't even be looking for gulls Josh, you should instead be looking for decent landfills, and then just let Brandon know when you find one (might help to play it up a bit by using the words "3rd winter Herring Gull plumage variation"). He'll spend the next 5 months happily camped out there, will nail down 3 or 4 of the species he's listed for you, but be happiest that he scored nineteen-and-a-half loaves of stale bread for the zodiac. In the meantime you can be out bagging rare herons like dirt birds. Bang! New Big Year record!

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