Forecasting/understanding the weather over the past week has been one of the craziest rides in all my times of watching the models. It felt like every model disagreed with each other... Heck, it felt like each individual run of each model disagreed with all before it...
I think they're starting to make sense though! Or at least, I hope they are... If my understanding is correct, we may be rather chilly - but in a darn good position to land a truly mega-rare bird!
850mb heights (Euro model run) - 168 hours out for next Tuesday early...
The above map is for winds up off the ground... I'm guessing 1000m to 1500m up... Maybe too high for migrant birds? Maybe not? I think it's a pretty good height...
On the ground, we'll be getting blasted with strong NE winds. In the past, I have been confused as to why MEGA rare's have often arrived BEFORE we feel warm temps and south winds on the ground... I can only assume it's because the warm air is "riding up" and the birds are flying ABOVE the NE winds, and are eventually grounded when they encounter them (or rain).
If that is truly a good way to get mega's in our neighbourhood - then we are IN LUCK if these forecasts verify...
SPC severe weather outlook for 4-8 days out - those colour patches are for Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
April 1991 - large outbreak = Black-capped Vireo at Long Point
May 6-7 1995 - outbreak = Varied Bunting at Long Point (details of this event are scarce)
May 3-11 2003 - very large/prolonged outbreak - 2 Hermit (accepted), 1 Virginia's (accepted) and 1 Red-faced (not accepted) Warblers reported in the province.
May 21-31 2004 - long outbreak - Lazuli Bunting, 2 Yellow-crowned N-herons, Tricoloured Heron...
May 3-5 2007 - outbreak - Townsend's Warbler (Rondeau)
May 1-2, 2008 - outbreak - Mottled Duck (Pelee)
May 22-25, 2008 - outbreak - Audubon's Warbler (male at Pelee) - seemed odd...
Apr 30 - May 2, 2010 - outbreak - Anhinga in SS Marie.
May 22-25, 2010 -outbreak - Audubon's Warbler (male at Long Point) - also seems odd...
Those are just a few samples... Some have almost nothing associated with the outbreak (in Ontario) - whereas others had noticeable spikes in OBRC birds reported, just nothing "insane" - A huge outbreak occurred in late April 2011 - see here - and the birding was AMAZING - although the OBRC records don't' reflect that... (Ken Burrell and I found YT Warbler, Eared Grebe, Glossy Ibis, Laughing Gull and an ad. male Summer Tanager in 24 hours on Pelee Island).
Each one is also a little different than the other depending on how/why/where the storms form and where the frontal boundaries are... What I CAN say, is that looking at the 1991 outbreak - the maps at the time look pretty similar to the maps that the euro is showing for next week...
Maybe we'll see nothing... Maybe it will be average, or maybe we should make sure the car is fueled up for a road trip somewhere to see a Painted Redstart...
Interesting, I wonder if it has anything to do with the jet stream, since whenever big tornado outbreaks happen I believe the jet stream is usually present in those areas adding extra fuel to the fire. ALso, when tornado outbreaks occur, the jetstream is often further north allowing moist air to be pulled in from the Gulf, maybe it pulls birds with it and conveys rarities north to the northeast? WHo knows, just crazy talk!
ReplyDeleteHey Nate - I think there's a very good chance it has to do with the jet stream (or at least, high speed winds high up off the ground)... The jet shears the top of the supercells, forcing them to "stretch" out and drop tornadoes off the back...
DeleteMakes me wonder though - at what level (how high) are some of these birds flying (or getting "caught") ???
check this: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/22/science/jet-stream-causing-tornado-outbreak.html?_r=0
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