GFS model run for 9am Nov 6th
THAT looks more like CASW weather. The last storm was awesome, but the warm southerly flow was moisture laden and would probably (I'm guessing) blocked the will of birds like CASW to move north... This new storm is considerably weaker from a pressure-reading standpoint - but the structure seems to better allow clear southerly flow to reach our shores in the great lakes.
This is the kind of set-up that, in the past, has brought CASW to locations like the southern shore of Lake Ontario eg,/ Hamilton/Grimsby...
It's not the best set up, and I think there's a very real chance we may just not see CASW in Ontario this year... But it looks much better than the last storm for something like this to occur. Once CASW enter the province - it typically takes NORTH winds for them to arrive at places like Long Point/Eireau/Pelee... Not always - but typically (you could say "classically")...
By Nov 8th - you'll get those north winds:
Looks like cold and snow-squally weather by Friday... It's getting to that point in time where we really shouldn't expect much in the way of passerine migration... It'll be right around the time where we switch our birding to the winter duck/gull watches... Looks fantastic for that... Maybe some good gulls will be found on the 10th/11th on the Niagara River? (I'm guessing so)...
Obviously rare passerines can show up well into December. (see: Black-throated Gray Warbler) - but I honestly start to believe that after the next 10-14 days, any that are found later have simply been wandering around the province before being located. Not that the are recent arrivals (for the most part anyways)...
Beyond the next week, there currently isn't anything terribly exciting on the recent model runs... Will be watching for that to change though!
Is the hurricane season dead? Finally? What a slow year! - (one of the slowest ever) -
Dude's got mad skillz. Respect. -
A good one for the weather network: