I'm taking two days (Monday-Tuesday) off of Pelee birding... Here's the forecast for the rest of the week:
Monday GFS model run for WEDNESDAY at 8am... This is just one run of one model, but paints a good picture of what to expect. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW is licking at Ontario. It won't be there (yet) for Wednesday, but the winds aloft should be very good.
I have VERY high hopes for a LARGE DROP of migrants at places like Point Pelee/Rondeau/Long Point. Winds will be cool out of the east, but it could be SUPERB for numbers...
The only thing that could mess it up is the RAIN - if it's too solid to our south, it will block birds. I don't think it will be, but there's still a chance Wednesday will be slow before things go really nutty...
If you want to be ready to see a show - I'd suggest being there Wednesday though! Just remember it's not a sure fire thing, but high risk = the chance for high reward. This will be a great day for rares.
GFS sample run for Thursday at 8am... WOW! A sub 1000mb low bringing HOT air from the GULF - along with steady/gentle south winds...
This will be a HUGE night for migration... Massive. Those who have been birding for days at Pelee won't even recognize the woods come dawn. I fully expect a massive influx (the "next wave") of birds to completely invade southern Ontario. Many may arrive the day before, but this will be the day where 100 people post on ontbirds about their first Orioles and Indigo's at their backyard feeders. Birders at Pelee will enjoy a wonderful reverse migration (I hope!) followed by an easy day of getting 25-ish warbler species.
It looks SO GOOD - the weather isn't terribly unusual, but it will hit on May 8th. It doesn't get ANY better for timing.
GFS sample run for Friday at 8am. The FUN continues! As far as I'm concerned, this will be the *best* day for finding a mega-rare. Although the weather looks soo good for weds/thurs - you could easily find the mega of your life before Friday. None-the-less, the closer the jet stream comes to us, the odds of finding rares go up. Winds will increase and we'll get one last day with a superb migration and the type of birding that we all crave.
These three days will "super charge" the province, and I expect a wave of excellent "finds" on the weekend as well, but there's no chance in heck I'm missing weds-friday.
Longer-range things are looking fun for May 11-17th too, but I haven't looked in any detail. I can't get beyond the forecast for this week! There's still 25 percent ice cover on the great lakes as well! Nuts!