Thursday, October 25, 2012

Frankenstorm update #3 for today

Just pulled some stuff off the world wide webs....... This part was posted by a user on a weather blog:

12z runs in good agreement for Superstorm Sandy

12z Euro...932mbs
12z GFS...941mbs
12z GFDL...925mbs
12z CMC...939mbs
12z UKMET...945mbs

That is a 5 model consensus on a storm going under 945mbs in October off the East coast, in less than 5 days. The only global model outlier was the HWRF which kept it in the 950s because it didn't hook the storm back in to the east coast. Regardless, the modeled event has probably never happened before for this time of year. A sub 945mb storm off the East Coast in October is incredibly rare and likely the lowest pressure ever for an extratropical/subtropical storm in this region of the world in October. As Levi put it, this would redefine the 'Perfect Storm'.

It is 4 days out though, so there's room for model error.


We are almost in the "cone" for the NOAA National Hurricane Center maps:


Tropical Tidbit for the storm... These weather videos are very much worth the watch - possibly my favourite online weather stuff... His website:

His cone (that I'm linking to... hope its ok!) 


Weather Underground:

GFS runs at low resolution:


There is no guarantee that this thing will come close enough to Ontario... But sure would be exciting (from a weather and birding stand point)....... 

HPC maps:

Oct 29

Oct 30 

Oct 31


  1. Gotta follow Jeff Master's blog as this thing progresses as well!

    (usually updated twice a day when things get crazy like this):

  2. If this sucker tracks to the Great Lakes, it'll almost certainly be the 50dor "king maker".

  3. Was out in the Gulf Stream on Oct 13th off Hatteras, NC. Loads of Black-capped Petrels still in this storm's path. Just sayin'

    1. I'll be fascinated to see what kinds of birds this thing moves, if it does actually make landfall! I would be happy to get BCPE on my "alive" Ontario list....