Early morning track update + strategy

From what I'm seeing with the tracks, there may be a real possibility that the best birding may be in the Kingston area and eastward......


Maybe time to go mobile??


Will continue to keep an eye on things (get it?)

So what's the plan?!

Well it's too far away to be honest...

For now: we are still in the very very early stages of this system....

I'll be focusing on Lake Ontario for birds from James Bay (Jaegers, Kittiwakes, Shorebirds).... Although things are getting more interesting in that we could be reaching stage 2 soon -

State 2 - the chance for birds from the St. Lawrence Seaway!  Maybe NE winds (by late today?) could have been blowing long enough to bring other interesting species like Gannets, more Kittiwakes, Manx Shear?? Or maybe some alcids?!

Probably too early, but the possibility of "NE coast" alcids shoudl be watched - eg,/ Dovekie, Razorbill and maybe Thick-billed Murre.....

Beyond that, I just don't know...

Wednesday is going to get interesting... (east winds FROM the coast , maybe?)

Thursday could be the day when some real CMF's arrive and first discovered (weak remaining centre passes over Lake Ontario) 

Friday-Sunday could be some damage done to the gas tank when things really start getting found...

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Always remember, this storm is totally unprecedented and we don't really know what (if any) birds will get moved around...

I give it a 25% chance that it blows Hurricane Fran out of the water and shocks us all with crazy sightings

and a 25% chance that virtually no "Hurricane birds" are found in Ontario....

Then a 50 % chance that it will bring some excellent birds, and most of us will go out looking (feel like we're working very hard), feel like we aren't seeing what we were expecting... Twitch some rarities, find something else.... etc etc etc

And 2 weeks from now (or 2 years from now) you'll come to realize that rare birds are rare, and you actually saw a very respectable haul of incredible birds